Here’s the way I see it:
If Obama caves, and only cuts spending, he loses his base and definitely loses re-election.
If Obama doesn’t cave, and the US default, he loses independents (again) and definitely loses re-election, as most people see this as a Presidential issue, ie, the President should play a constructive role and gets the rap for failure.
If Boehner caves, the GOP loses the House. And Obama very possibly wins re-election, because I don’t think independents want taxes raised at this time, either. (Not just tea party).
If Boehner doesn’t cave, then, if the US goes into default, Obama still loses re-election (See above).
I think that is pretty accurate as to where we are.
I don’t think Boehner will cave, then. There really is no up side for him to do so.
I think, personally, Obama’s goose is cooked politically here. He lost this battle when he lost the house last November.
Anyone see flaws in that logic?
Could we please raise the limit to keep the green back press open until october ? I’ve got some 25-year old bonds that should get repaid in september.
I would agree, but you forgot that he’s black and as such as the media is concerned, he is responsible for nothing. Any displeasure over political apocolyptic hellishness brought to bare on us from Obama is really just racism spat from ruling white cronies stuck on Jeffersonian dogma from an era long dead.
So that puts both Obama and Boehner in no win situations?
I am not politically knowlegeable enough to know, but I certainly hope your analysis is sound. My guess is that this is mostly a dog and pony show for the benefit of both parties' constituencies and that they will find a last minute deal that allows both sides to claim victory and kick the can down the road for another time.
The telling feature of such a deal will be how far into the future they set the stage for the next stand-off on this issue, specifically before or after the 2012 election. If they only give Obama and the Democrats enough rope to get through the second quarter of next year, the Democrats and Obama might just end up being hanged by that short rope.