It will take $200mil to win the GOP nomination and another $800mil to win the general.
Nobody has approached those numbers yet, and nobody will until the clear favorite emerges.
Romney is no more than the "conventional wisdom" favorite at this point.
And he certainly DOES NOT have the support of the base of the party...those who actually vote in primaries and contribute money.
Not sure I agree about the primary, but with Obama's fundraising ability, it will take $800m or more for the general.
Romney is no more than the "conventional wisdom" favorite at this point.
No doubt. All we have to go on are the polls, fundraising, favourable ratings, intensity ratings, etc., and from those numbers, I can only conclude Romney is the favourite, because I don't have any inside information: no internal polling data or anything like that. I'm not Nostradamus; I just judge based on what I can see and have learned from history.
Things could be turned completely on their head by January.
American Research Group and a couple other firms poll likely GOP voters. ARG hasn't done a recent poll of the early states though.