Right now I would put my money on Bachmann or Perry.
However, the unemployment numbers will come down dramatically prior to the election. They will come down because people will give up looking for work and those people are counted on a different index than those that are actively looking for work. The media and 0 will make a big noise about how his plans are working. The question will be how many buy into the big lie.
As bad as the economy is the Pubs are at a crossroads as well. If they concede on the debt ceiling the Tea Party will focus more on them then 0.
A smart conservative candidate will dump massive advertising money into explaining the “real” unemployment number that includes the stopped looking and marginally employed categories. Then they will use that number every chance they get.
It’s too easy to say, “All of us know folks who are unemployed, and even those who’ve gotten so discouraged that they’ve given up looking, or run out of benefits.”