Posted on 07/05/2011 6:25:03 AM PDT by markomalley
Do you happen to know if Stephen Speilberg is one of those who support Obama?
No, it merely has a wider margin of error.
In order to achieve tighter margins of error, you would need a larger sample size. A sample size of 1,023 yields the common +/- 3%, for example.
As long as you keep in mind the large margin of error, the results are statistically valid. Given that Jews are such a small cohort of the population, and that they vote in the vast majority for the Democratic (or more frequently, lunatic liberal) candidate in a race, the only interesting result would be if there were such a huge change in opinion in the Jewish voting cohort so as to indicate a change (eg) from 80% of Jews voting for Obama to only 30% voting for Obama. Multiply that by 3% to arrive at the overall voting demographics and you see how many Jews it would take changing their minds to result in even a 1% change in the overall vote tally.
resistant to Godly direction.
And what slightly larger proportion of the population (~ 25%) votes like Pelosi, has too many of its own Democrats in government and Hollywood (much higher percentages than their part in the general population) and has been pushing this country further to the left for over a 100 years? Hint: it’s not “the Joos.”
Slippery, pieces like that of O’Brien’s piece are beside the point. Jewish folks only comprise about 3% or less of the population, and they reside mainly in big cities.
It’s even further beside the point than that. Both political parties are socialist and in support of big, fat, effeminate government. We’re heading for default with either party in government. Both parties are also more involved in playing Lawrence of Arabia than being honest allies with the best (Israel, for one).
Why does this "seem reasonable"?
What reference are you asking about? That not all Jews are Zionists? Or that Jews who do not live in Israel obviously might not be Zionists?
What is unreasonable about those statements?
Is it reasonable for a Jew to not be a Zionist? That's a totally different question and not one I was posing.
If youd like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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For such smart people, they sure are stupid.
From Gallup's own poll:
That constitutes almost a 28% drop in support from Jewish voters. That is an extremely large drop and rivals the historical support Jewish voters gave Pres Reagan.
IMO there are three groups of Jewish voters. The minority (20-25%) of conservative voters; the 30-35% hardcore leftists who dislike Israel and the US; and the Jews who care about Israel but are social leftists and habitual Dem voters.
Only this third group has a changeable vote, but the incentive has to be large enough. In this case, more so than even the second Carter election, the incentive is there.
This could be a historic Jewish Republican vote. Even more important IMO, Jewish financial support for Obama could disappear.
For those here that are constantly berating the Jewish vote, imagine if the Christian vote shifted Republican by 28%.
Is what you see any different than the rest of Maryland? It is a state more liberal than New York, ya know...
And yes, the headline accompanying this story is very misleading, obviously written by a Democrat shill.
Gallup never releases their methodology, so it is always difficult to know what the internal poll statistics might imply. The overall sample shows high support for Obama relative to other polls (46%), so there's one clue.
The entire sample of Jewish respondents was 512 people, which to me implies a considerably larger margin of error than 7%, especially given the likely geographic concentration of those who answered the poll.
Also, because so many of those polled are likely to be life-long Democrats, any consideration of voting for a Republican would be far more likely to require the naming of an actual person, as opposed to a "hypothetical" character.
Wouldn't surprise me if an indecent percentage of those who disapprove do so only because they think Obama hasn't governed far enough to the left. Bill Maher comes to mind. You know, the folks who are ticked off that Gitmo is still open for biz, all our guns haven't yet been confiscated, and the Tea Party hasn't been designated a terrorist organization. Millions of these loons exist. ....and although many of them are leftist Jews, the vast majority of them are NON-Jews.
Plausible enough. I won’t sit Shiva for American Jews, then.
For example, I'd call Jon Stewart a typical JINO:
...whereas I'd call Joe Lieberman a religious Jew (his liberal proclivities notwithstanding):
Now, I could be wrong, but I would guess that Joe Lieberman is supportive of Israel. I suspect Jon Stewart's reaction to Israel's problems with the Middle East is "Eh..."
I DO NOT believe this poll: I just read another one that found that Jewish support for Obama had dropped tremendously and that many Jews would not vote for him in 2012. Only time will tell. I have ZERO sympathy for such self-loathing people who pretend to belong to my religion.
Sorry, Andy, if you read the end of the story, Gallup generally does release a summary of their methodology, which they did in this case. The reason why Gallup shows higher support for Obama than other polls is because they don't limit their respondents to registered voters, let alone likely voters. Instead, they interview anyone who answers the phone who claims to be 18 years or older. Heck, they even include aliens in most of their surveys.
The entire survey of Jewish respondents was 512 people, which to me implies a considerably larger margin of error than 7%.
I can tell you that there is a formula used in statistics where one can determine the margin of error to a specified probability (say 95%), based entirely on two variables which are plugged into that formula: the number of items sampled (in this case, 512 Jewish respondents) and the number of items in the total "universe" (in this case, the total number of Jewish Americans 18 and over, which is roughly 4 million). 7% happens to be a high margin of error for any national political poll, BTW. To lower the margin of error, they had to reach more Jewish Americans, but they probably decided not to because of the expense involved.
...the likely geographic concentration of those who answered the poll.
The Jews surveyed by their method would probably not have a geographic concentration much different than the general geographic distribution of Jews in the US. I don't see that as a particular problem of this methodology. But it's possible that the Orthodox and and more recently arrived Russian Jews - who tend to vote Republican in presidential elections and strongly anti-Obama - may have been undersampled because of cultural and language differences.
I'd include that, broadly speaking, in "cultural differences," and some of that probably did occur.
BTW, did you notice that the authoress of the Gallup poll report has an Arab surname? She seems to be one of the honchos at Gallup.
Actually those demographics have changed significantly in the last four or five decades. Jews now make up less than 2% of the American population, and many have left big cities for suburbs and exurbs.
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