Gary Shilling: Commodities "Show Every Sign" Of Being A Bursting Bubble

I can't get that link to work. However, I'm here in North Dakota. From this wellsite up on the bluffs, I can see the Missouri River, spread over the bottoms south of Williston a couple of miles outside its banks. It hit an all-time record crest here this year, beating out all recorded previous crests. Those lands, normally irrigated, will not be planted this year.

Upland farms have had difficulty getting crops in because of extensive rainfall this spring (fields too wet), following record snowfall, including a blizzard in May. Where crops were planted, there are problems with mildew (rust, brown spot). Maybe it is different elsewhere, but this is a region which grows one hell of a lot of wheat, and most of the world's Durum (think pasta) is grown within a couple hundred miles of the Souris River--the whole area has been buried in snow or subject to very frequent rainfall. The runoff in Minot (another record river crest) is from this precipitation.

If the crops aren't in, there won't be a bumper crop.

Sugar beets along the Yellowstone and Souris River are a no-go this year as well--land that isn't still under water is too wet to put a crop in.

Maybe elsewhere will take up the slack, but with accounts of flooding and drought, all I see is someone creating a 'buying opportunity' by assuring everyone that there is plenty to go around. Depressed prices further stress producers who have been nailed by high fuel and seed costs for planting, where they even could plant, and Corps of Engineers, dike failures, and flooding have eliminated some of those crops as well.

Keep in mind that a Soros backed group is trying to buy up flooded farmland cheap, and depressed commodity prices for the harvest work hand in glove with that, regardless of supply.

Speculation can make money on market moves in both directions.

But my Mark 1 eyeball, even with its limited range, tells me there isn't any bumper crop happening around here, and people from 'the area' (200 mile radius) say they see the same.

Yep. The Upper Missouri Valley has big problems this year. The Lower Valley, though, has improved amazingly over the past six weeks and crop size and yields there rate to be in the top 5-6% historically.

Also, didja like how USDA "found" 2.1 million acres of planted corn last week? The remaining big Qs are: what will the yield on the late-planted beans be (there are huge amounts of these, and there could be an enormous swing here), and, will a Gulf hurricane bail out any portion/a decent portion of Texas crops?

As always, stay tuned.

Fuel has been falling. Diesel not as fast. Cheapest diesel seen recently $3.669 at the I-5 and Hwy 34 truckstop a bit South of Albany, Oregon.

Need to have Oregon fuel permit papers to get that price. Otherwise seen everything from $4.199 in California, to as low as $3.749 in places like Kingman, Arizona or Western Kentucky. Higher in New York State (of course). Saw $4.299 at the Petro on the NY Thruway near Waterloo (but that was "credit price", so $0.05 to $0.10 less was actual cash price. About 3 weeks back for the Waterloo price. Been to Houston, then Dallas, then back to Houston, then to Ogden UT, Salt Lake to Casa Grande, Nogales to Blaine WA and back to Sacramento since then.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.