Re: 60+ CVs, or SSBNs?
SSBNs [I don’t think they are putting anymore emphasis] than a maximum of up to 12 boats split between the 094, the 096, and, possibly, just possibly, by 2050 the rumored 098.
But 60 SSKs they already have and adding to this roster continuously, a batch at a time, are more modern cutting edge systems such as the 039, 040, and the newest addition the 041. This number I think will exponentially be increased three folds by 2050 with one fleet for the South China Sea, another Sea of Japan, and the balance stretches across the rest of the ChiCom coast.
light to medium tonnage [Chinese productions of Varyag class carriers] however may be the way to go with Chinese if their concentration in front line submarines, air power, and ballistic missile strategy is any indication.
Unlike the super carrier sported by the Americans, these Varyag class light to medium carriers are likely very very low cost to built, to maintain, to man, to operate, and to arm therefore 60 such boats does make for good economic sense.
I’m speculating also that a Varyag class battle group would consist of no more but one carrier; one supply ship (possibly with hangers to house up to 12 022 FACs); 2 frigates; and two destroyers. This combination, if my estimation is correct, is about half or a third of the strength of an American battle group. Even less if you consider fire power between the two, therefore the math is relatively similar.
Re: If the ChiComs are able to product two indigenous CVs by 2020 or 2025
Apparently, and I don’t know [how on-target this is], but, US Intelligence had been issuing reports lately that the ChiCom’s are expected to launch two indigenous versions (based on scale models uploaded in the Internet) of what appears to be something similar to the Varyag. One expected by end of 2013 and another by 2015 time frame.
Given the speedee d’ gonzales ways the ChiComns does things, I would not be surprised a bit if they come up with two indigenous IKEAed-together boats of their own by 2015. I mean how long does it take if they modularize everything and slap them together one module at a time? Not long my opinion.
There are clear indications that this plan is maybe covertly being put together and these indications are: they keep pumping out 052, 053, and 054, frigates and destroyers fast pace almost one or two new boats every year. The math tells the story.