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CARACAS, VENEZUELA - “Hugo Chavez is unwell. The normally voluble, hyperactive Venezuelan president is running his country from a hospital bed in Havana, after emergency surgery June 10 to deal with a “pelvic abscess” that interrupted the latest of his many visits to Cuba. What caused the abscess, or how severe it was, has not been revealed.

Officials say it is unrelated to the gimpy left knee that had slowed the president in recent weeks and required him to use a cane. Chavez continues to sign decrees, and his closest aides maintain he is on the mend and will soon be back in Venezuela.

Chavez’s medical difficulties may well be exceeded by his political ones. Venezuela is in the throes of a presidential campaign that does not officially begin until next year. The opposition Democratic Unity coalition is due to choose its candidate in February. Assuming the government does not tamper with the timetable — by no means guaranteed — the election will be held in December 2012. But one issue already overshadows all others: Can the former army officer, who has been in power since 1999, win a third six-year term?

Having been mired in recession for a couple of years, and plagued by inflation of almost 30 percent, the country recently returned to growth. Thanks in part to higher oil prices, the government projects a 4 percent rise in gross domestic product this year, though private sector estimates are around half that. Even if growth remains modest, Chavez has squirreled away billions of dollars in unaudited public funds and should be able to pay for a pre-election spending binge.

He has been campaigning for months, having won approval in 2009 for a constitutional amendment that removed presidential term limits. There is no need for primaries, he said, “because it is well-known that I have assumed the responsibility of once again being a candidate for the presidency.” With all the petro-state’s resources at his command, the gift of gab and the power to force the broadcast media to carry his speeches live, he is a formidable opponent. But if polls are to be believed, this election will be no walkover, even if Chavez quickly returns to health..............”

http://www.startribune.com/business/124213003.html