If you’re talking about me, I said that Palin is the most likely to win.
But, if she doesn’t run, then the tea party candidate will be who? Paul, Bachmann, or Cain, presumably.
I expect the tea party to be mighty again. It’s not unrealistic to think that Paul could beat Bachmann and Cain.
If that does happen, I would expect Paul to get the tea party support against the establishment RINO candidate, whoever that ends up being.
I expect the tea party to work hard for whoever the tea party conservative candidate is.
I happen to prefer Ron Paul. I believe he’ll make the cuts. But I do like Palin (and Bachmann) as well.
Then let's exclude Palin in the wager.
I say despite these wacky polls, and your apparent belief that they hold any actual value, Paul has ZERO chance of winning the Republican nomination. Moreover, I am willing to bet you $100 that he doesn't. You seem to think he has a chance so why not take the bet?