oh please...in politics, a day is like a year...minds change, the unexpected happens frequently (McCain getting the nomination in '08 for example) and a lot of those swing voters (and the vast majority of Americans) have never gotten the chance to hear post-McCain Sarah Palin speak for herself in a political forum or setting unfiltered, and they will soon get to do that once she enters the race...not only that, but the MAJORITY of voters who will be determining in the GENERAL ELECTION (versus Obama) do NOT pay attention to the process this early! Swing voters who do not tend to be of any party do not partake in primaries, and will not be making up their mind until well into 2012 when the candidate for either side has been pretty much determined.
regardless:
If there's anything I've learned in my long time of political observation, it's:
THE ONLY POLLS THAT MATTER ARE THE ONES ON VOTING DAYS!
Excellent post!