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Good post. Alawites control the military. Syria is a very complicated place and tearing itself apart.

The unrest is spilling over into Turkey. Rumors of Turkish intervention coming out, not just from Debka but from Turkish sources.

Turkey has had it with PKK Kurdish Workers' Party fighters hiding in Syria amongst the sizable Kurdish population and attacking Turkey in cross border raids. The PKK has mostly left N Iraq due to the Turkish raids there.

Look for a run up to Turkish intervention after the coming elections. Turkey has already seen thousands of refugees from Syria and are very worried they will stay.

BTW, reports are that Muslim Brotherhood money from Egypt is buying weapons for jihadists in Syria. Reports are that 120 Syrian troops were killed by those jihadists the last 3 days in NW Syria near Latakia, home of UBL's in-laws and cousins, the Ghanems.

The continuation is long and detailed. Additional info: the Turks have been preventing journalists from interviewing refugees in the well set up and isolated compounds. There is a presidential election in Turkey this weekend and that is suggested as a reason for Turkish secretive behavior in a situation that actually makes them look good.

Meanwhile I have continued to monitor the situation in Libya and am posting here an interesting article with a lot of details. Some are from inside Tripoli which gives a sense of the mood there. Gasoline is now around $5 a quart, there is enough for the utilities and maybe 6,000 autos per day in this city of 1 to 2 million. The tremendous heat of summer with the need for refrigeration and air conditioning will be a severe test for the regime.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/africaandindianocean/libya/8570258/Rebel-gains-spark-battle-for-west-of-Libya.html

This is a Sunni revolt against Alawite rule, possibly aided by Ikhwan infiltrators in the Syrian military, some of whom are showing their true colors. I have to wonder to what extent Syrian rebels are being aided by the Iraqi Sunni insurgents who fled American firepower in Iraq. This could be a case of blowback for Assad - in not sealing the border and allowing Syrian Sunnis to fight on behalf of their religious brethren in Iraq, he has created a cadre of Sunni rebels who are expert at guerrilla warfare. What didn’t work against overwhelming American firepower has a much better chance of working against the Syrian military. Which is why Syria’s Alawite rulers will have to resort to the same measures that Hafiz Assad once did, if it wants to put down this insurgency - the leveling of rebel strongholds with artillery and tanks.

While Assad isn't all that sympathetic a figure, from the standpoint of his actions against American interests, the specter of a Hamas state replacing him isn't exactly pretty either. Since antiquity, states have traditionally dealt with recalcitrant subjects by driving them elsewhere (a la most of Arabia with respect to Christians) and/or importing more obedient ones (a la Bahrain). My guess is that the Alawites are dealing with their Muslim problem by convincing the rebellious ones to move to a country more accommodating to their particular denomination - newly Islamist Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan or Iraq.