SO....
IF she decides to run... one of two things will happen...
1. During the debates she will prove herself to be unfit and incompetent... in which case she will not get the nomination.
2. During the debates she will prove herself to be fit and competent... in which case she will get the nomination, and proceed to destroy Obama.
There is no scenario where Palin performs poorly in the primary debates and still gets the nomination. For better or worse she has to overcome the preconceptions about her or she will not win the primary.