Posted on 06/08/2011 7:53:35 AM PDT by WatchYourself
The line being pushed by the Mainstream Media, who seem all to giddy to point out the closeness of Romney in the polls to Obama, and establishment Republicans alike is that Mitt Romney is moderate enough to win. Just look at the poll numbers! In May, Romney was +10 in favorable ratings in AP/GFK (45-35), and in other polls +4 Reuters (36-32), +8 in NBC (28-20). Nothing mindboggling, but decent nonetheless, and, therefor, he has a shot! And he always is close to Obama in the polls.
But the reality with Romney is this: He has not been in the news; he did not put himself on the line in 2010 election cycle and was pretty much ignored; he hasn’t been campaigning or laying out positions to large groups of people. Right now, Romney is riding on name recognition leftover from 2008. People have forgotten whatever it is they knew about him. So the questions is, as people got to know Romney before, what did they think of him? We look back to the last election cycle to find out.
In Gallup Polling, the last time that 40% of the population had never heard of Mitt Romney was in may of 2007, a few months after Romney launched his Presidential campaign. At that time, he was at a decent 27% Favorable to 19% Unfavorable, for +8 overall. In other words, similar to where he stands now, just more people know of him. From there, we see an interesting trend. Over the next few months, his favorable began to dip steadily, and rose above 27% just once in the next 7 surveys. By the time his “Never Heard Of” number was cut in half, to 23% in September, Romney’s favorables had not changed and stood at 27%, while his Unfavorables nearly doubled to 35%, or -8 overall. By the time the Iowa Caucuses were starting, he was now at -10, moving to just 32% Favorable to 42% Unfavorable. One month later, as he was set to leave the GOP nomination race, Romney hit a low point of -12 and 34% Favorable with 46% Unfavorable.
So, in the 2007/08 election cycle, from the time Romney was semi-known to the time he became well-known, Romney jumped from just 27% in favorable to 34% by the time it was all said and done, or a gain of 7 overall. But his unfavorable rating jumped from 19% to 42%, more than doubling what it had been. The reality is, the more that Romney campaigned and debated in 07/08 the more that people did not like him. His unfavorables rose at a rate more than 3 times what his favorables did.
But now? The last Gallup survey had Romney back at +8 (36-28), or exactly where he was 3 years ago.
The irony is, earlier this week Romney said he was glad that Sarah Palin was in the news and he wasn’t, because all the scrutiny was going towards her. Perhaps Romney was thinking about what happened in 2007/2008 also.
A growing number of Republicans, as they learn more about Mitt Romney, are learning that for the first time in their lives, he is a GOP candidate that they cannot vote for, even in the general.
2. Who really benefits from a third party
Third parties arise as split-offs when the two main parties fail to listen to their base by nominating a candidate unacceptable to the majority of their voters.
As such, it is a thundering message of party failure. To keep it from happening, the parties must work out the differences between their underlying constituencies and nominate someone who best represents what the party stands for.
If it were not a real possibility, each party would end up not caring about their base, since voters [like you] would vote for them no matter who they elected. Because of this, the answer to your second question is that all conservatives benefit by holding the Republican Party's feet to the fire with a credible threat of a third party.
ONLY by a severe third party challenge, or at least the viable threat of such, does the Republican Party get the message... They never see the light. They only feel the heat. No heat, no change.
No More RINOs - Including RINOmney!
A couple of the candidates rumored to be running under the Republican banner are polling within 10 points of Obama, but only Romney comes out ahead. Some candidates’ negatives are off the charts—64% say they won’t vote for Palin. I’m adopting a wait and see and figure out what it looks like closer to the election. I have a bet with my wife that if Romney wins the Republican primary he’ll win the general. The economy will tell.....
A vote for Romney is a vote for someone as bad as Obama and four more years of liberal rule while destroying the Republican party....no thanks.
By democrats? Possible
By republicans? NO FRIGGIN WAY..........
Romney: Obama lite.
Those kinds of polls showed Reagan trailing Carter by double digits with a few weeks to go; look how THAT turned out! I don’t trust polls.
I don’t think he’s very electable at all. Could he win the nomination? Possibly, if Sarah chooses not to run, but I doubt he’d inspire very many to go to the polls since there’s little difference between him and Obama. Why bother?
Last time around, the MSM might have figured Romney was more electable than McCain among independents, so, to boost McCain, they indirectly went after Romney’s religion.
They said of course religion is not relevant to a candidates qualifications, after all, JFK caused doubts, but voters went for him.
Then they kept pounding Romney with statements like, “But a LOT of people have questions about Romney’s religion and that could hurt him quite a bit with voters. People are really taking a second doubtful look at Romney. Maybe they will go instead for war hero John McCain. What do you think, Jim?”
“Sure, Bob, I tend to agree with everything you said. This could finally be McCain’s year. I imagine a lot of people are just not ready for Romney.”
But this time around, they will jump in for Romney with, “I think all doubts about Romney’s religion have been swept aside and Republicans and independents alike are ready to make this Romney’s year. What do you think, Jim?”
“Sure, Bob, I tend to agree with everything you said. This could finally be Romney’s year. I imagine a lot of people are finally ready for Romney.”
Third Party Candidate - Strom Thurmond - New Party - Nope
Third Party Candidate - George Wallace - New Party - Nope
Third Party Candidate - Ross Perot - New Party - Nope
I'm afraid history is not on your side - unless you are a dimocrap. I believe in each of these elections the dims won, so if you're working for 0bama, then go ahead promoting a third party.
History is on my side. The threat of a third party - credible threat - forces parties to choose better candidates. When they LOSE because of the situation they created, they do better the next time. That is history. No third party last time around, so maybe they need a fresh lesson.
Blindly supporting RINOS, as you expressed your commitment to, encourages LAME (Dole, McLame, etc.) candidates to be chosen.
You can do whatever you wish. Free country. But if RINOmney is nominated, THAT is a great way to work for 0bama. He will win hands down - despite your money and efforts supporting a RINO. Good luck with that.
I will go fishing that day, after voting just for the down-ticket. I will mourn for the country, but it will be the fault of people who have an attitude like yours.
So you think handing control back to Baraq Hussein mohammed 0bama for four more years is the answer? Buddy I'd like to kick your ass!
“So you think handing control back to Baraq Hussein mohammed 0bama for four more years is the answer?”
Of course not. But if Mitt is nominated [and supported by you], that is what you will accomplish. Your call.
“Buddy I’d like to kick your ass!”
Probably lots of men would. I no longer fight after the accidental death in the last one...
So you are behind bars and still voting - sounds like a dim to me.
SOL,
No the final judgment was “self-defense”,
which it was.
I do vote. I vote for conservatives. Never again RINOs,
including RINOmney.
Best,
ampu
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