I find your analysis very thought provoking. I believe that Cain or someone like him could be a player in Iowa in any other year. This year, He will be matched against one of the most gifted politicians in U.S. history. He has none of the charisma nor the depth of understanding of policy nor the communication skills which Palin possesses in full measure.
He will do no better, and probably much worse than Allen Keyes, who was a much more spellbinding orator. For the most part, the only conservatives who will vote for him are those who harbor some deep-seated racial guilt and want to satiate it by voting for a black conservative. I suspect such guilt cookies are in short supply right now, as most people think the election of a black President has canceled whatever debt their conscience had levied upon them. Cain cannot expect to be the beneficiary of this neurosis to any significant degree. Without it, he is just another first time candidate reaching for the brass ring with his first grab.
“For the most part, the only conservatives who will vote for him are those who harbor some deep-seated racial guilt and want to satiate it by voting for a black conservative.”
Interestingly, your viewpoint focuses on conservatives’ guilt about race, but your analysis itself focuses on race to the exclusion of other factors. Conservatives who, like me, are tired of seeing businesses get marginalized in our society will vote for Cain, absent any considerations of race whatsoever, and your analysis, which attempts to highlight other parties’ focus on race, actually reveals a myopic focus on race within itself.
It’s not racial guilt. It’s just that successful, conservative blacks shatter the left’s entire narrative.