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I tend to agree. Here’s my take from here on the ground in Iowa: Sarah Palin right now is the overarching candidate, the powerhouse. She cuts across all demographics. Cain has the potential, but not there yet. Bachmann is after the Huck crowd, Romney is the center, center-right, center-left, Pawlenty the odd man out. Gingrich and the rest non-starters.

I don’t underestimate Bachmann, but I’m realistic too. Everyone knows that Huck’s network is up for grabs with Huck out and she’s trying to fill that niche. She, Pawlenty, and Gingrich (is he still in?) and any me-too’s need to win Iowa to get their name on the map. Palin, Cain, Romney just need a strong showing.

I don’t though think Bachmann will pull it off. She might but I don’t think so. The thing is Palin doesn’t need to win Iowa! If Bachmann or even Pawlenty came in first and Palin second it would be no big deal because those two campaigns have to this point no legs beyond Iowa. South Carolina and later is what Palin needs to win.

Palin’s threats are Romney and Cain. The thing is, even if Bachmann wins Iowa, she has a better than average chance of fizzling. Guess what? She’s coalesced a whole bunch of Huck voters that will need a home. That will be either Cain or Palin. Bachmann may end up being Palin’s stalking horse by accident.

We shall see. It’s near blasphemy among my political peeps but Iowa isn’t that important on the GOP side. Nor should it be, we have lost population and the votes aren’t here. You can retail politic just as easy in NH and SC. I think Palin has a 50 state strategy and the ability to win that.