The Bullish Case for the U.S. Economy

Wall Street Journal ^ | 06/04/2011 | Robert Doll

[SeekAndFind]

People are invariably shocked when Mr. Doll tells them that in 1995 the U.S. produced roughly 25% of the world’s goods and services and in 2010, after 15 years that included a tech bust, a terrorist attack and a housing bust that triggered a financial crisis, the U.S. was still producing that same 25% of global GDP.

How is this possible given the rapid rise of China and India? Mr. Doll says the increase in emerging markets’ share of the world economy has come “at the expense of mostly Japan and a bit Europe. The U.S. has held its own, which I think is a statement of our ability to be productive in a tough world.”

Therefore, Investment strategist Robert Doll says America’s edge is faster population growth, companies that are global in scope, and a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship.

That has not gone away even with this huge recession.

[politicianslie]

That has not gone away even with this huge recession.

You meant to say has not gone away even with a radical Muslim named Obama purposely trying to destroy the American ecomony so America can be defeated.

[marktwain]

That has not gone away even with this huge recession.

You meant to say has not gone away even with a radical Muslim named Obama purposely trying to destroy the American ecomony so America can be defeated.

When we successfully kick the "Won" out of office in 2012, there will be enormous pent up demand for jobs and the opportunities to make them. There is potential for very serious growth.

The downside? A huge amount of debt to pay off.

[YankeeReb]

And the reason for this is pretty simple. We have higher immigration than both of these, and we make more babies.

If this were pre-1965 that would be cause for optimism. Back then we took in immigrants based on what skills they brought to the country. If we needed scientists we'd make it easier for them to become citizens , we had strict quota's on third world immigration. Post-Kennedy immigration reform it seems to be that we bring people in based on how many government services they'll use, thus how many votes for Democratic-Socialists. Maybe I'm wrong and I admit I'm no expert but that's how it looks.

[OpusatFR]

Blackrock is poised to become the behemoth next to Goldman.

Of course, none of this pertains to the average citizen who will still be at the mercy of these b*stards, the legacy of their ongoing derivatives, which BTW are still growing, the dark-pool you can’t participate in unless you have deep pockets, and the massive suck of money into their coffers and pockets.

The game is rigged against the majority of the population.

[Darth Reardon]

A nice theory, if you expect your “work” force to work. But when your culture seems bent on finding any excuse to pay people not to work, perhaps population growth isn’t so positive.

[kabar]

"Over the next 20 years, the U.S. work force is going to grow by 11%, Europe's going to fall by five, and Japan's going to fall by 17. This alone tells me the U.S. has a huge advantage over Europe and a bigger one over Japan for growth," he says. "And the reason for this is pretty simple. We have higher immigration than both of these, and we make more babies. We have a higher fertility rate. And they are the long-term determinants of population growth and therefore work force growth." Mr. Doll and his wife seem to be doing their part with three children.

This is the kind of idiocy that passes for wisdom and insight. Our workforce may be growing, but it is becoming less educated and a drag on our social welfare systems. By 2019, half of the children 18 and under will be minorities as defined by the USG and by 2039 half of the country will be minorities.

Hispanics and blacks are the largest segment of this population. They have 50% and 71% out of wedlock birthrates respectively and school drop out rates of near 50%. Lack of an education and coming from single family households are the pathology for failure in this society and greater dependency on government welfare programs. Our immigration policies import poverty, including large numbers of poor and uneducated adults. 53% of immigrant headed households are on welfare.

Is it any wonder that the Chamber of Commerce and folks like Bill Gates want to import more guest workers to compensate for the lack of skills and education of US workers? Of course, lower costs are also a big part of their desire to bring in foreign workers who cost less and help depress US wages.

The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 80 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the world’s third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.977 percent (2010 estimate), principally due to immigration.

[willk]

Here is an idea. First we get rid of our illegal aliens. Then we allow in an equal number of immigrants of our own choosing. Out of this group we can even allow some of the former illegal aliens (at the end of the line) who had worked hard and assimilated without being welfare burdens.

[glorgau]

This is a “demography is destiny” argument.

[winodog]

You are correct. Sure we allowed 30 million of the worlds most uneducated, corrupt, non english speaking people in the world to boost our birthrate, but at what cost.
With tech becoming more automated everyday and labor going the way of the buggy whip, what will all of us “useless eaters” do to put food on the table?

I suspect the elite will soon induce the Great Die-off instead of the greater depression.

[Mr Rogers]

The guy is an idiot.

“The long-term growth rate of any economy is the product of change in the size of the work force multiplied by productivity of the work force.”

It is NOT the productivity multiplied by the number of people in the country. What controls the growth rate is having a market that needs or wants a product. I could go out today and hire 100 people to make nose pickers, but without a market that wants them, we would all be out of business and unemployed shortly.

If your population grows faster than your markets, then the result is more unemployment. If your desired work force times productivity exceeds your market, you will have a lot of folks out looking for jobs that do not exist.

[kabar]

Here is an idea. We shift from the current kinship based immigration system and go to a merit based system. Currently, we bring in 1.2 million legal immigrants a year. Let's cut that back to around 300,000 annually and link our immigration numbers to our jobs and skill needs.

Let's get rid of all the illegal aliens (read lawbreakers) by making life very difficult for them so they self-deport, i.e.., attrtion thru enforcement. The end of the line for immigration to the US begins in the intending immigrant's home country, not the US.

Rewarding people who broke our laws by allowing them to stay and work here just provides more incentive for others to come here expecting the same treatment. We had a one-time amnesty in 1986. It didn't work. Now 12 to 20 million illegals are here expecting a second blanket amnesty.

Conferring rights and privileges upon illegal aliens has a corrosive effect on the Rule of Law, the very foundation of our Republic. It is also a slap in the face to legal immigrants who have followed the rules and obeyed the laws. There are millions of immigrants waiting their turn overseas to enter the U.S. legally. They have completed all of the paperwork, background checks, physical examinations, etc. And approximately 40 million immigrants living in the U.S., most of whom followed the law

[mrsmith]

“the U.S. work force is going to grow “
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea38.htm

According to the BLS it fell 2 million in the last year. Of course this is probably statistical lying to allow Obama to keep the unemployment rate low. Ironically, 2 million jobs is approximately what he claims he has created in about the last year.

[qam1]

I'll have what he is having

[Cringing Negativism Network]

“American” companies now succeed by making China rich and strong.

That is not a path to national success.

[YankeeReb]

Your idea is great except for one thing, how will it help to keep big government socialists in power and in our pockets, therefore it will never be implemented.

[kabar]

Your idea is great except for one thing, how will it help to keep big government socialists in power and in our pockets, therefore it will never be implemented.

I don't understand your question. Did you omit some words?

[kabar]

125,000 brand new foreign workers with work permits each month -- HERE'S THE PROOF

[YankeeReb]

I don't understand your question. Did you omit some words?

Sorry, I was being sarcastic and worded it badly. My point was that your idea is exactly what we should do, but it'll never happen because the big government progressives in power are getting reelected by allowing anybody into this country, and the more uneducated the better.