His own party stands to lose a lot if he stays in; many Dems “down the ticket” from him will pay the price for his “activism” (as they did in 2009 & 2010). Keeping the White House while giving away super-majorities in the House & Senate can’t be attractive to his party or base; ask Bill Clinton after the shelling of 1994.
Do you actually think Obama cares about anyone? He’s not a Democrat; Barack worships himself and nothing else. He’s in unless the party kicks him out, and they can’t because the race card is not worn out inside the Dem Party.
Bill Clinton was smart enough to drop the more public elements of his far-left agenda after that. Obama still seems set on pushing that agenda.
“His own party stands to lose a lot if he stays in”
It’s a mistake to think he won’t run. He’s all in.