Few would place bets on whether Palin is running for president

Sarah Palin has once again taken center stage and delighted her supporters with the announcement that she will begin a high-profile bus tour in Washington on Sunday.

The tour has an obvious — and presumably intentional — resemblance to a campaign jaunt. But many people on both sides of the political divide remain skeptical that she will run, or that she has a viable path to the Republican presidential nomination if she does so.

Then again, placing bets on Palin’s plans has always been a fast way to lose money.

Asked to give his “gut feeling” about whether Palin will enter the 2012 race, Republican strategist Dan Judy responded: “My gut feeling is that it is impossible to have a gut feeling about Sarah Palin. Since 2008, she has not done anything that a potential candidate would do. But then again: She’s Sarah Palin.”

(Judy, who added that “I don’t think she has a legitimate shot at the nomination”, is a vice-president at the Republican consulting firm Ayres, McHenry and Associates, which will work with former Gov. Jon Huntsman (Utah) if he enters the race.)

Palin’s fortunes seemed to have declined somewhat in recent months. Her favorability ratings — never quite as lustrous as her star power — had fallen even among Republicans. Her decision to release a video message in the wake of the shooting of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz) in which she implied she was the victim of a “blood libel” attracted widespread criticism.

More generally, the [replace 'widespread' with 'common'] assumption that she would not run in 2012 had left political professionals more inclined to chatter about other potential candidates, including Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn), who is often seen as boasting a somewhat Palin-like appeal.

Some circumstances, however, have worked to Palin’s advantage, particularly the decision of other high-profile figures to stay out of the race. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.) and Gov. Haley Barbour (Miss.) could both conceivably have sought similar slices of the demographic pie.

Palin may decide that the stars have aligned for her with both those men out, Bachmann not yet in and, among the other likely or declared candidates, only former Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) intimately connected to the social conservative movement.

“Nature abhors a vacuum and so does Sarah Palin,” said Republican strategist Mark McKinnon. “I’m not surprised that with Huckabee out and absent some other Tea Party favorite in the race for the GOP nomination, Palin is cranking up her machine.”

There is also the unusually slow-to-solidify nature of the 2012 contest to consider.

“The GOP field is relatively undefined and there is no clear frontrunner,” said Dr. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. “At best, Romney is a weak frontrunner. Palin has a strong base of support and would have to be considered a top-tier candidate from the get-go, with the ability to raise a ton of money and grab the free media attention that most candidates can only dream about.”

However, Sabato continued, Republican activists “want a winner against President Obama. Early trial heats can be deceptive in some ways, but Palin loses to Obama by the widest margin of just about any candidate. The risks of nominating Palin are very, very high.”

It is, of course, for precisely this reason that some Democrats dream fondly of Obama facing Palin across the presidential-debate stage. They look at Palin’s tendency to polarize, her high negative ratings and her tendency to make sometimes-confounding public remarks and they tend to share the sentiment that Obama strategist David Plouffe expressed last year: “Something tells me we won’t get that lucky”.

Nonetheless, Palin has never lacked either self-confidence or determination. She can also point to at least one example of her winning against the odds — the defining victory of her political career came when she defeated sitting Alaska governor Frank Murkowski in a Republican primary.

She could conceivably think that she would hoover up the vast majority of social conservative votes, thus transforming a multi-candidate contest into a de facto head-to-head battle with a more establishment figure, such as Romney.

In that scenario, though the Republican establishment would no doubt rally against her, Palin still might fancy her chances. Even if she were to lose, such a showing would be far from an embarrassment. And it would also ensure Palin’s continued political and cultural relevance, which might dim if she backed away from the race.

But even this kind of hypothetical scenario runs up against the central question to which almost no one knows the answer: What does Palin want?

She may indeed be on the brink of deciding that the presidential race is too enticing to pass up. But it seems just as likely that she has no intention of doing so, and is more interested in using the media attention she gets at moments like these to maintain her profile – and her celebrity.

“She is doing very well with her current business model,” said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. “And that could be very hard to give up.”

“She has been doing such a fantastic job making herself a brand and making herself a lot of money,” he said. “I think she will continue the tease for as long as possible. But I think she has other priorities.”

There is also the unusually slow-to-solidify nature of the 2012 contest to consider.

“The GOP field is relatively undefined and there is no clear frontrunner,”

Of course. The pubs have learned, if they won’t say it in public, that the Press are active warriors for Obama. They will do anything, print anything, say anything to keep him in power.

If that is the way it is, the first people who declare will get viciously attacked by the MSM. Look how they hate Sarah, because she threatens their darling.

They are all going to keep their heads down until they can’t anymore. The MSM is determined to pick off all challengers for the sake of their love for the One.

Palin, as she obviously doesn't want to retire permanently from public life, has three possible futures, roughly these:

Don't run for president. Become next Phyllis Schlafly.
Run for president. Lose. Become next Barry Goldwater.
Run for president. Win. Become next Ronald Reagan.

They aren't precise, she'll put her own take on things. But they roughly categorize her potential influence and power in the conservative movement and the party.

Even the trolls here recognize Reagan and his influence. 'Nuff said.

Even though he lost, and lost big, nearly all Freepers will recognize the Goldwater name. He'd have become President in 1965 had not Oswald given LBJ a martyr to ride over him. Those old enough to remember first hand will agree that he continued to be the de facto leader of the conservative movement for years thereafter. His spirit and power wasn't defeated by LBJ, the MSM or elected Democrats. He was only defeated by age... and his second wife.

Now, I have nothing against Mrs. Schlafly. She has done and, at 86, continues to do great things. She's the person most responsible for stopping the ERA. She's a great lady, but I bet that even amongst Freepers there will be many who wouldn't recognize her name.

Given that not running now locks in #1 - time will pass her chances by - how can she not choose the path to #2 or #3. Even if she loses she'll retain more influence than not running will ever provide her.

It’s the truth though. She’s unconventional and it’s a bit scary. I also agree the risk of running her against Obama is very high (she could be Obama’s Mondale) but ultimately she’ll have to sell herself on the base first and win enough of the establishment to secure the nomination. I’m not convinced yet either way. She has some very, very devoted followers but so does Ron Paul. Can she build a winning coalition? We may find out.

Don't run for president. Become next Phyllis Schlafly.

Palin is a media magnet and in this day in age where all media is instant and the conservative media is coming of age, she can have a far greater and continuing influence than Schlafly should she decide not to run.

Look at the influence Rush has had and he hasn't run for anything.

She wasn’t a big media magnet, tucked away in Alaska, before McCain picked her. Some, including some here (IIRC some Freepers were pushing her 6 months earlier), spotted her potential, but without the desire and opportunity to do something it was just potential. She’s a media magnet as long as the media thinks/fears she’ll take it to the next level, no longer. Once they’re sure she won’t/can’t hurt them they’ll either try to ignore her as yesterday’s news, or cover her like Lindsay Lohan’s mom, as a trash celebrity.

You may be right, but I think the media fascination with her will continue whether she runs or not. She has a way of pulling their chains and they just can’t help themselves.

I’m not sure yet if she can win at the national level, but I think she could make a huge impact as governor of AZ, if she so chose.

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