I get you point, however:
The recent uptick in gasoline prices began around 2008-2009, when the oil markets started boosting prices above $100 a barrel. Those market changes had a number of causes, but the biggest among them were "world" demand - China, India, Brazil etc - vs world supply, and monetary - a cheaper dollar tends to raise the world price of globally sold commodities priced in dollars.
That still leaves your point about greater U.S. exploration and production. And yes, on that point you are right. The U.S. has identifiable additional reserves that investment in exploration and production could bring to market. The question is - at what cost?
The Saudi's sell as much oil as they do for two reasons - they have a lot and most of what is in production now is not expensive to get to.
As much as the U.S. has reserves it has not tapped, they will not come to market at the cost that Saudi light crude does.
I think the U.S. can get more oil products from domestic resources than it does today. The cost of doing that and world energy markets at the time that material comes to market will determine whether or not gasoline prices will have any downward pressure from that, in addition to the domestic economic benefit of more energy dollars staying in the domestic economy, instead of paying for imports (as much).
Someone smarter than you and I could make economic predictions about the price of gasoline based on what is known today. I can't, and I don't assume that if we just get more domestic oil production we will necessarily get a lower price in gasoline. I think getting more domestic production is worth doing regardless of the price of gasoline; if only to reduce imports and be more secure with regard to our energy sources.
“Someone smarter than you and I could make economic predictions about the price of gasoline based on what is known today. I can’t, and I don’t assume that if we just get more domestic oil production we will necessarily get a lower price in gasoline. I think getting more domestic production is worth doing regardless of the price of gasoline; if only to reduce imports and be more secure with regard to our energy sources.”
I agree with the general sense of your analysis but you are not clear about the volatility in oil and gasoline prices. Oil prices have been volatile for decades with periods of increased demand pushing up the price and then falling demand and increased supply pushing the price back down. The market is relatively tight so rather small changes in demand and supply can have non linear impact on prices.
Many individuals argue that increased domestic exploration will not impact prices or not impact prices much. If all producers behaved in this manner, world production would be stuck at 1980 levels. With 1980s level production, the worldwide economic activity would be sharply lower. Increased production has allowed increased demand, vital to increased economic activity. Thankfully, every country except the US allows its domestic oil industry to explore and produce more.