Jane Corwin is no RINO. This is not the "heavily" Republican district the national media claims it to be. It's a slightly-Republican district that is gradually trending left as upstate's middle-class moves away.
The eastern end of the district is comprised of Rochester's working-class suburbs which have been hit very hard by Kodak's shedding of some 30,000 employees and Delphi's ongoing problems. This was, unfortunately, a prime target for Jack Davis's foolish protectionist rhetoric.
Absent the third party candidate, Corwin would have won handily. Add to that the fact that Hochul is well-known in Buffalo for having done a very good job modernizing and streamlining the local DMV offices. In short, she's not perceived as a tax-and-spend Democrat -- though she may well turn out to be one.
I will never understand why the GOP doesn’t buy billboard space. Two or three billboards denouncing the fake Tea Party candidate would have solved that, no?