“Unless the 30% remaining is all outside of Erie and Niagara Counties, Corwin can’t possibly catch up.”
Almost all of Erie County has reported, which Hochul won comforably. All of Monroe, Livingston, Niagara, and Orleans Counties have reported, going for Corwin but by smaller margins than Hochul carried Erie. None of Genesee County has reported, I don’t know what that means.
Hochul won big in Erie and Niagara Counties; Corwin won not quite as big in the rest of the district (Corwin would have won bigger margins there had Davis not gotten over 10% of the vote outside of Erie). There were more votes in Erie + Niagara than in the rest of the district, so Hochul won by around 4% districtwide (Corwin may cut it to 3% when all votes are in).
Now this district will almost certainly be eliminated in redistricting.