A recent poll came out that shows HERMAN CAIN and Chris Christie leading the polls. What?!? virtually unknown a few months back, Cain has vaulted by simply saying what needs to be said ... Herman Cain was also the winner of a recent straw poll in Ft Lauderdale. And, as my tagline shows, I’m in his camp.
With Herman Cain vs a number of Govs (Pawlenty, Daniels, Romney etc.) Cain has a chance of getting the lions share of the cultural conservative and Tea Party grassroots support. He can pull a Huckabee, win Iowa and vault to top tier.
If Palin jumps in, the math wont work, as the Tea Party gets split. And here’s the tricky part. Will Palin suck the oxygen in the room from all the other candidates? Possibly. that would hurt possibly the most acceptable-to-all-wings candidate Pawlenty, and certainly any other candidate with name ID ... which leaves Romney.... But if that happens, and you have a split of Tea Party votes with Cain in the mix, end result is ironically more likely an establishment eg Romney win.
Thoughts:
1. the question of whether Tea Party votes will split or whether one candidate will be ‘it’. If Palin doesnt run - Cain is the IT candidate. No disrespect to Bachmann, but Cain is da man.
2. Cain right now has a decent shot at the nomination, but it will be a lot harder if Palin gets in, as he will no longer be ‘it’.
3. If Palin is NOT in the race, Romney has ZERO chance at the nomination. A ‘fair’ race that allows the lesser known candidates to get some exposure will leave Romney in the dust. Folks like Pawlenty have credible records and none of the Romneycare baggage. Romney’s only chance is for celebrity level race to develop. Romney v Palin.
4. If Palin jumps in, she will not be a shoo-in for the nomination. Sorry Palin fans, but check the polls. There is enough concern over ‘electability’ that her jumping in the race will reanimate a media frenzy. I’d give in a Romney v Palin race the edge to Romney 60/40. Bizarre but true, we’d actually nominate a guy who is pole-axed on our #1 issue, Obamacare; but remember this is the same GOP electorate that nominated McCain. we arent the stupid party for nothing.
4. With many people warming up to Mr Cain, if Palin waits, it would take a better campaign performance from Palin to win back voters. Voters will be split if she is not strong and not early.
If so, the biggest winner of Sarah Palin running will be Mitt Romney.
Before you toss this analysis in the trash, consider that well BEFORE the Iowa caucus in 2008, I concluded that the Huckabee hype would lead to McCain winning the nomination. It’s what happened.