Sarah Palin, Leader of The Pack

The American Thinker ^ | May 21, 2011 | Lloyd Marcus

[Victoria Delsoul]

The democrats and their media enablers have demonstrated that they fear Sarah more than any other potential GOP candidate, as evidence by their vicious attacks and ridicule of her and her family. No question about it, she is the one that the liberals despise the most.

Sarah will decide the best time to declare her candidacy, and that time will not be determined by the media, the democrats, the GOP elites, or some anxious pundits.

[onyx]

You’re exactly right and we will just have to remain patient and continue to pray for her and her precious family.

[WOSG]

A recent poll came out that shows HERMAN CAIN and Chris Christie leading the polls. What?!? virtually unknown a few months back, Cain has vaulted by simply saying what needs to be said ... Herman Cain was also the winner of a recent straw poll in Ft Lauderdale. And, as my tagline shows, I’m in his camp.

With Herman Cain vs a number of Govs (Pawlenty, Daniels, Romney etc.) Cain has a chance of getting the lions share of the cultural conservative and Tea Party grassroots support. He can pull a Huckabee, win Iowa and vault to top tier.

If Palin jumps in, the math wont work, as the Tea Party gets split. And here’s the tricky part. Will Palin suck the oxygen in the room from all the other candidates? Possibly. that would hurt possibly the most acceptable-to-all-wings candidate Pawlenty, and certainly any other candidate with name ID ... which leaves Romney.... But if that happens, and you have a split of Tea Party votes with Cain in the mix, end result is ironically more likely an establishment eg Romney win.

Thoughts:
1. the question of whether Tea Party votes will split or whether one candidate will be ‘it’. If Palin doesnt run - Cain is the IT candidate. No disrespect to Bachmann, but Cain is da man.
2. Cain right now has a decent shot at the nomination, but it will be a lot harder if Palin gets in, as he will no longer be ‘it’.
3. If Palin is NOT in the race, Romney has ZERO chance at the nomination. A ‘fair’ race that allows the lesser known candidates to get some exposure will leave Romney in the dust. Folks like Pawlenty have credible records and none of the Romneycare baggage. Romney’s only chance is for celebrity level race to develop. Romney v Palin.
4. If Palin jumps in, she will not be a shoo-in for the nomination. Sorry Palin fans, but check the polls. There is enough concern over ‘electability’ that her jumping in the race will reanimate a media frenzy. I’d give in a Romney v Palin race the edge to Romney 60/40. Bizarre but true, we’d actually nominate a guy who is pole-axed on our #1 issue, Obamacare; but remember this is the same GOP electorate that nominated McCain. we arent the stupid party for nothing.
4. With many people warming up to Mr Cain, if Palin waits, it would take a better campaign performance from Palin to win back voters. Voters will be split if she is not strong and not early.

If so, the biggest winner of Sarah Palin running will be Mitt Romney.

Before you toss this analysis in the trash, consider that well BEFORE the Iowa caucus in 2008, I concluded that the Huckabee hype would lead to McCain winning the nomination. It’s what happened.

[WOSG]

“At least as important, no natoinal poll, survey, or questionairre places her among the top 5 actual or potential candidates. Not even conservative polls. “

That one gets me. She WAS near the top before, last year, but this year has faded back. I frankly dont get it.

[onyx]

Members a whole lot smarter than me have weighed-in regarding Herman Cain. For your consideration, begin with post number 81

I think Sarah Palin has been planning to run all along, but like she told Erik Bolling the other night, her announcement or decision isn't going to be dictated by some media imposed deadline.

The media are dying for their horserace with their constant polling. I only watch Rasmussen. Fox had one the other night that only sampled 321 *adults*.

[Lexinom]

That's an excellent analysis. 1, check. 2, check. 3, check. 4 & 5, check. It's even the more true now with Mitch Daniels bowing out thereby further consolidating the GOP establishment vote behind Romney.

[sopwith]

PALIN- CAIN 2012

[WOSG]

That post #81 expresses how I felt about things prior to the 1st debate.

Herman Cain’s excellent 1st debate performance changed my mind. His performance was not only the best in the room, but bested what we might expect from some non-runners not yet running.

Cain is - at least - a contender.

I’ll stick with my thinking that Palin out means it will be a Cain v Palwenty race, and Palin in makes it more Palin v Romney.

Let them each prove their merit over time.

[WOSG]

Thanks. I was afraid I’d get flailed for some Inconvenient Truths in there.

I’d add btw that Pawlenty is the big winner from Daniels not running. The ‘midwest governor’ division race is over, Palwenty wins.

[unique]

Hmmm.....but, what about the negatives?

[Lexinom]

That's the problem with Sarah. Nothing against her - we love her. But what about the average, non-political person who allows his or her opinion to be shaped by the newsmedia, the people who decide the elections?

Sarah has much to offer and can do far more good - and inflict far deeper damage to the Left - in a capacity other than as a presidential candidate. She's an unconventional woman and I believe will have an unconventional role in shaping history.

If she does enter the race, she splits the conservative vote and loses to an establishment-backed candidate.

[no dems]

Thanks for the update. I appreciate it.

[unique]

Yes, I’m with you on Sarah. There is simply too much against her as a candidate - we need to turn the page, away from anything to do with McCain and 2008 and go with someone fresh with a reasonable negative percentage.

No matter how much spin the Freeper Palinistas put on Sarah’s ability to win, it just isn’t aligned with the numbers and the vital need for cross over votes. I’m thinking that she knows that and hopefully she with tell the Palinistas here to move on and support a winner.

[The Wizard]

bttt