The Nuclear Genie

Proliferation: The president's policy speech lauded changes in the Mideast during the so-called Arab Spring. Curiously missing was anything about ominous nuclear developments in the Muslim world.

We're happy to see President Obama embrace President Bush's idea that the Mideast status quo is not satisfactory. Changes are due.

But during his lengthy address, billed as a comprehensive new policy toward the Muslim world, Obama barely mentioned the biggest threat of all: the growing nuclear threat of Pakistan and Iran, which may soon metastasize to other countries in the region.

Even as Obama spoke, the nuclear genie was leaving the bottle. Iran's state radio on Wednesday announced that its Bushehr nuclear plant, built illicitly with Russian help, is now "operational." This is a first for Iran — and a watershed in its bid to gain nuclear weapons.

Though its oil reserves are the third largest on Earth, Iran insists it needs Bushehr to generate energy. Maybe so. But color us skeptical. It won't be long before Iran ascends the nuclear learning curve and builds a weapon.

Equally alarming, Pakistan has built a massive new weapons-grade nuclear reactor — its fourth — at Khushab. The British Daily Mail calls it "the fastest-growing nuclear program in the world."

Pakistan already has a nuclear arsenal estimated at 100 warheads or more. It now looks ready to expand aggressively. This is a direct threat to its democratic neighbor and long-time rival, India — and an encouragement to nearby Iran to keep up its own program.

Yesterday, I'm sure before this editorial was published, I posted the following reply:

In a stroke Obama has just made war in the Middle East more likely.

The Arab world, reinvigorated by a misnamed "Arab Spring" will now reasonably believe that the United States will abandon its ally and the temptation to wage war against Israel will be very difficult for those few leaders who might be so inclined to resist. For example, the administration of Jordan is a relatively benign autocracy but one which had fashioned a modus vivendi with Israel despite the fact that many refugees in Jordan, Palestinians, ceaselessly agitate for an aggressive foreign policy against Israel. It will be very difficult for the Hashemite kingdom to resist those pressures now.

One could hardly expect Damascus to have the disposition to resist the temptation. God knows what will emerge in Egypt and with Iran soon to have the bomb, the whole situation could rapidly go nuclear. Obama has steadfastly refused to ally America's prestige and diplomatic weight against Iran obtaining the bomb. There was never any question that he would threaten, much less actually use, military force to prevent Iran getting the bomb.

Between Obama's pusillanimous stand against Iran, his missteps in Libya, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen, there is absolutely nothing to convince the Arab street that the time to strike is not near. Today's inexplicable folly accelerates the dénouement.

I said before this man took office, and I preached this to my German neighbors only to be scornfully dismissed, that there would come a time when they would fall on their knees and beseech almighty God for the return of George Bush.

That day just drew nearer.

Iran is building missile launch sites in Venezuela!

The best equipment currently available to the Iranians could possibly reach south Florida with small nuclear warheads.

They currently have the "Shahab-3" and a Soviet-derived weapon obtained from North Korea (US codename "Musadan" for a village near the site where this missile was first seen).

The latter is a further development of the 40-year-old Soviet SS-N-6 sea-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) which in Soviet service could loft a 1.75-megaton warhead about 1200 nautical miles.

In Iranian service, this weapon has the name "Sajil" or some similar. What sort of warhead it will carry is just speculation at this point. The salient point is that the Iranians now have two IRBM designs available, both probably better than the SS-4 and SS-5 IRBM's Nikita Khruschev tried to install in Cuba in 1962.

Yes, I only meant to make a statement about what they have now and how far they could reach now.

Presumably, if they strapped SRB's all over those old-design SLBM's-turned-IRBM's and SRBM's-turned-MRBM's-turned-IRBM's, they might actually be able to reach things on Chesapeake Bay and in Texas and Alabama. Maybe. Depends on throw-weights and so on -- and who knows what they have for guidance. Hopefully, not the Loral equipment Slick Benedict Arnold gave the Chinese PLA.

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