My theory is certainly better than the one you are offering. So Obama, using his "courriers" Ayers and Dohrn have initiated the Arab Awakening? Obama and his pals in the MB started all of this in Tunisia and then moved on to Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria, and Libya. What nonsense.
What ignited all of this was an outcry over food prices. The entire Middle East with the exception of Israel has been ruled by corrupt tyrants who have used secret police and force to put down any opposition. Many of the same conditions that broke up the Soviet Union exist in the Middle East. These conditions existed long before Obama took office.
If you recall, Obama was slow to the dance. Initially, he was not calling for the removal of Mubarak. In fact, the envoy he sent to Mubarak, Frank Wisner, urged Mubarak to finish his term and stay in power as part of an orderly transition, i.e., write his own legacy. Obama had to distance himself from that assessment eventually saying the Mubarak had to go, which angered the Saudis. In fact, the Saudis are still angry, which is why they did not increase oil production when the events in Libya reduced global production.
Obama and the US have little control over what is going on now in the Middle East. Forces have been unleashed that will take some time to settle down and give us an idea as to the eventual outcome.
I have lived 7 years in the Middle East and been to almost all the countries in the region (including North Africa) except for Syria and Libya. The conditions in the region finally reached a boiling point. The people realize that their problems are caused by their own leadership, not Israel and the US.
Revolutions can sometimes have unintended consequences like in Iran. Carter, Vance, et. al. helped grease the skids for the Shah including counseling him not to use force against the oppostion which was composed businessmen, the intelligentsia, students, exiles, and clerics. Ultimately, Khomeini hijacked the Iranian Revolution and we and the Iranian people got someone far worse than the Shah. The same may happen in Egypt and in Libya.
Obama is not the puppeteer in the Middle East, he is the puppet to be manipulated.
The conditions that led to the fall of the Western Roman Empire likewise existed for many, many years -- for over a century -- before the freezing, moonlit night in December, 405, when five invasion columns of something like a quarter of a million Germans crossed the frozen Rhine and turned one of history's pages.
They crossed in a coordinated fashion. That was what defeated the Roman defense strategies of the previous 200 years and more, going back to Marcus Aurelius. The field armies of flying columns of heavy, cataphractary cavalry organized by Gallienus in the 260's could beat down one irruption after another, and serially beat down two or three -- but not five, if they were coordinated. And they were. Four years later, Honorius recalled his troops from Britain to help, but it wasn't enough. It was Game Over for the West.
For a strategy like that to succeed, someone has to give a signal when the time is right. Obama dropped the handkerchief by signalling to the MB that the United States would not give substantial practical help to the Egyptians, Bahrainis, and Yemenis.
Initially, he was not calling for the removal of Mubarak. In fact, the envoy he sent to Mubarak, Frank Wisner, urged Mubarak to finish his term....
That's what he told them -- it's called dissembling. Easy for a lifelong dissembler, and well-understood throughout the Middle East. It's just that a U.S. President hasn't done that before. Not to America's friends.