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The Road to 2012... With Graphs.
Posted on 05/01/2011 2:01:38 PM PDT by Minus_The_Bear
Popular Vote:
Popular Vote:
2008 Results:
2010 Census Results:
Key States 2004
Key States 2008
Resource List
Electoral Maps:
Polling
Organization...TEA Party / 912 Group / Smart Girl Politics. etc.
TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; obama; palin; romney
1. If you look at the
Popular Vote chart you can see that conservative turnout dropped off for McCain in 2008 compared to Bush in 2004.
Also, notice how Perot swung both '90s races to Clinton with his 3rd party campaigns.
2. Obama can win easily if we nominate the wrong person
OR we do not focus on the right states.
3. Why Nebraska? They split an electoral vote to Obama in 2008 and might again in 2012.
Create your own electoral map at 270towin.com
To: Minus_The_Bear
One can really see the affects of the flood of Yankee bedwetters here in NC. Fortunately, natives appear to be waking up a little...we’ve got a leftist governor and an embarassment of a Senator to get rid of next year.
2
posted on
05/01/2011 2:05:45 PM PDT
by
warchild9
To: warchild9
Sadly, Ms Hagen isnt up for re-election until 2014.
3
posted on
05/01/2011 2:16:13 PM PDT
by
ComputerGuy
(HM2/USN M/3/3 Marines RVN 66-67)
To: Minus_The_Bear
I think Sabatos map is off. Obummer is doing terrible in PA poll wise. So is Casey. We just had a massive sweep of GOP officials on all levels in '10. The Rat machine is finished now that Fast Eddie is gone. I also question OH as a tossup. That does not seem likely.
4
posted on
05/01/2011 2:21:55 PM PDT
by
Lazlo in PA
(Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
To: Lazlo in PA
I doubt Sabato's map as well... but PA will go to Obama.
Can the rest of the state really overcome Philly?
To: Minus_The_Bear
IF Romney and his backstabbing, child-attacking
team had left Gov. Palin and her children alone,
then the GOP would have won.
6
posted on
05/01/2011 2:27:47 PM PDT
by
Diogenesis
( Vi veri veniversum vivus vici)
To: Minus_The_Bear
Can the rest of the state really overcome Philly?
Philthy and Pitt can be overcome when Conservatives get off their rumps and vote. Look at what Toomey did last go round. The latest polls show Obummer 53% disprove/ 42 approve. That is huge. Plus with the GOP sweep, generations of Rats pols were thrown out of office. Obummer will not have the luxury of the machine Rendell controlled. We also have a pretty strong Tea Party now in PA. That will help the GOP candidate if they are a fiscal Conservative.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theticket/20110428/el_yblog_theticket/obama-approval-low-in-pennsylvania-nevada
7
posted on
05/01/2011 2:34:57 PM PDT
by
Lazlo in PA
(Now living in a newly minted Red State.)
To: ComputerGuy
Bev is probably toast. That’ll be a good thing.
And thank you for your service. My daddy did three tours in VN—Force Recon. He’s a very bad dude and I mean that in a good way.
8
posted on
05/01/2011 2:38:29 PM PDT
by
warchild9
To: Lazlo in PA
Philthy and Pitt can be overcome when Conservatives get off their rumps and vote.
I still worry about Philthydelphia. I watched a GOP lead disappear magically, the last two POTUS elections when Philthy was counted. Amazingly, they are always the last tallied and ended up with a 102% and 98% voter turnout respectively. The GOP PA congress needs to tighten up the laws on polling places now! No more polling in bars, basements and union halls for a start. Finally, they need to remove the cemetery census from the voter registration lists.
9
posted on
05/01/2011 3:08:57 PM PDT
by
PA Engineer
(Time to beat the swords of government tyranny into the plowshares of freedom.)
To: Lazlo in PA
Wisconsin should also show in the toss up column. We voted in a Republican Assembly - Senate - Governor and (#*# canned Russ Feingold. Right after we pass a budget, we will take up election reforms (voter id, residency, etc) and after that Democrats won’t consistently win by 10,000 fraudulent votes.
10
posted on
05/01/2011 3:14:54 PM PDT
by
sgtyork
(The secret of happiness is freedom, and the secret of freedom, courage. Thucydides)
To: sgtyork
I thought about including Wisconsin in the graphs... but the polling numbers so far don't show it.
Wisconsin is like Pennsylvania; comes close but can't make up for the heavily Democrat urban centers.
Maybe the recent Prosser election & union battle can counter act that.
To: Minus_The_Bear
To: Lazlo in PA
Great map. All the GOP has to do is win all the R-leaners and all the tossups and we win.
VA a ‘tossup’.... roflmao - GOP will sweep that one.
Same with IN, NC, and OH. lean R actually ... and CO and FL are winnable.
The math looks good.
Even PA, WI and MI will be in play if we have the right race/candidate.
13
posted on
05/11/2011 10:43:35 PM PDT
by
WOSG
(Herman Cain for President)
To: Minus_The_Bear
I agree that Nebraska and / or Maine split electors could decide this election.
The nightmare scenario is a tie at 269.
What happens if: ?
DEMS
CA 55
CO 9
CT 7
DC 3
DE 3
FL 29
HI 4
IL 20
MA 11
MD 10
ME 4 of 4 (1 can split)
MO 10
NE 5 of 5 (5 can split)
NJ 14
NY 29
OR 7
PA 20
RI 4
VT 3
WA 12
WI 10
= 269
PUBs
AK 3
AL 9
AR 6
AZ 11
GA 16
IA 6
ID 4
IN 11
KS 6
KY 8
LA 8
ME 0
MI 16
MN 10
MS 6
MT 3
NC 15
ND 3
NE 0
NH 4
NM 5
NV 6
OH 18
OK 7
SC 9
SD 3
TN 11
TX 38
UT 6
VA 13
WV 5
WY 3
= 269
I am positive my head would explode, but what else happens?
14
posted on
05/12/2011 3:53:31 AM PDT
by
ri4dc
(Cut your cable, Break Wind for the TSA, Flush Twice in 2012, ROTUS Meet the Hermanator)
To: Minus_The_Bear
Goolge Trends graph of the last 12 months containing both search and news results.
palin
ron paul
romney
pawlenty
herman cain
To: All
To: Minus_The_Bear
What age groups do conservatives tend to draw voters from?
We need more creators and less joiners and spectators.
To: Minus_The_Bear
To: All
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