I admire your optimism but I just don’t agree. I think this is 2004 all over again but the party roles reversed. Bush was very beatable but the rats had nobody running who could do it. These candidates are all deeply flawed. For starters, I don’t like Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich or Daniels. Palin has been so demonized that she is unelectable. Her negatives are too high to overcome. I like Bachmann, but she has no executive experience. Pawlenty was a decent governor and is relatively conservative but comes across as a boring milquetoast. He’s also taken some positions over the years that are a bit troubling. As for Christie, I don’t think he’s running and he’s a little too east coast for my taste.
You know, in many ways you sound like a fairly insightful realist. I am surprised someone who analyzes things the way you do - cold, hard, a bit cynical maybe, would hang your hopes on a conspiracy theory. There really was no way the birther stuff was going to pan out. There is a good reason almost every prominent conservative avoided it as best they could. Some didn't want to offend a segment of the activist base that believed in this stuff, but folks like Coulter, Levin, Malkin, etc, etc, knew all along this would amount to squat.
Anyway, the birther stuff is done. Trump is not a serious candidate and not even a conservative so he probably won't run, and even if he does he will not win the GOP nomination. Time to move on. I don't see 2012 looking like 2004, I see it more like 1992. Obama has been a failure. Facts are facts. He has failed, unemployment is worse than when he was sworn in, the debt is massively higher, inflation is starting to roll, etc. Hussein has made things worse. Period. Now we just came off a significant off year election with conservatives winning a LOT of seats (particularly on the local and state level), and the public basically knows what the Republicans/conservatives/tea party stands for. Now they will get to make a choice and we have a real opportunity to put a strong conservative in the White House. If the economy stays even close to as bad as it is, not only might we win in 2012 - we may win with a public that understands its actually voting for people who will really cut budgets, change entitlement programs, etc.
I'm just not as negative as you. I think your analysis is not entirely wrong in certain ways, but once one of our candidates wins the nomination they will seem more presidential than they do when they are part of a large pack of wannabe's. And if the field remains unsettled, we may see other candidates enter the race. I think, for instance, there is at least a chance Rubio jumps in.