I still think had TR not run in 1912, Taft still might very well have lost (not by much, however). I base that on the fact that the Republicans lost the House in the 1910 midterms and were effectively split in the Senate (which led to the infamous turnover of Presidents Pro Tempore). I think a lot of the Roosevelt Progressives would’ve voted for Wilson in protest.
My Grandfather hated TR, The Bride at every Wedding and the corpse at every funeral, hated FDR even more.
No doubt about it. Taft was the precursor of Hoover twenty years earlier.