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Silver Black Swan If Rampant Speculation Is Not Reigned In
TMO ^ | 4-23-2011 | Dian L Chu

Posted on 04/23/2011 5:11:22 PM PDT by blam

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Many are of the opinion that the only option left to the Government is to inflate the debt away. Until that opinion changes or subsides, silver will remain high, IMO.
1 posted on 04/23/2011 5:11:27 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

I predicted this a long time ago: Government intends to inflate the debt away


2 posted on 04/23/2011 5:15:07 PM PDT by BenLurkin (This post is not a statement of fact. It is merely a personal opinion -- or humor -- or both)
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To: blam

Dang it all!! It’s too late for me. I bought silver and it indeed has gone straight up!! Save yourselves and don’t buy silver or the same thing could happen to you.


3 posted on 04/23/2011 5:15:47 PM PDT by BipolarBob (I fell asleep during my air traffic controller job interview and still got hired. Cool!)
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To: blam

I don’t understand, if the govt inflates the debt away won’t dollars be worth less? Seems to me silver would be even more valuable, why would it be worth less too? I really don’t understand.


4 posted on 04/23/2011 5:18:10 PM PDT by pepperdog (Why are Democrats Afraid of a Voter ID Law?)
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To: BenLurkin

No one doubts that the government intends to inflate the debt away at this point. It gets rid of the debt while pummeling the dollar and increasing the size of the government dependency class. It’s a win win for democrat and republican progressives who control Washington.

However, keep in mind that a significant amount of the demand for silver is as an industrial metal. Not as much as say, titanium or lithium, but on the order of 30%-40%. In a worldwide depression, this demand will dry up.

There’s a reason everyone knows what the term “the gold standard” means, and “the silver standard” isn’t even a term.


5 posted on 04/23/2011 5:18:29 PM PDT by Yet_Again
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To: blam
Using SLV as a proxy for silver futures, the out-of-the-money 50 calls are pricey and active until at least next January. The market is not done with silver as yet.
6 posted on 04/23/2011 5:21:42 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: pepperdog
This guy is trying to apply the lessons of the real estate bubble to the commodities bubble. But every bubble is different.

I believe speculation is playing a major role in the commodities run-up. But that speculation is in turn fueled by bad currency policies.

7 posted on 04/23/2011 5:22:38 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: blam

The author might be short silver and is hoping silver will go down so his clock does not get cleaned.


8 posted on 04/23/2011 5:25:12 PM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: blam

We need to be cautious.

The left redefines common terms to demonize their opponents and to excuse themselves.

What is “speculation?”

The left (headed by none other than Obammie the Commie at this time) is trying to demonize “speculators.” By using that term, what they are trying to demonize is those who invest in the futures market.

There are two types of “speculators” as being discussed. But there is only one true type of speculating regarding the markets. The other type is not speculating at all.

Speculators do nothing more than invest in the current price of a commodity. This no more controls the price of that commodity than a gambler who bets on the final score of a game contributes to the score of that game. Sometimes the gambler wins. Sometimes they lose. But speculating on the futures market is good for the people. It helps to ensure the flow of commodities to those who need them.

Now, what is being conflated with “speculating” is what the mega-firms like JP Morgan, Chase, and Goldman-Sachs are doing. They are buying up actual crude, storing it in massive tankers, and refusing to deliver. In short, they are withholding supply in order to drive up the market price. They bought when it was cheaper, held it off the market, manipulated the cost in part by devaluing the currency, and will sell at a massive profit when they finally deliver the commodity.

This is NOT speculating. This is none other than the old “trust” style of manipulating the market. We have anti-trust laws on the books that should be applied to this activity...the same laws that the left love to tout as saving the little guy from the evil rich mega-investors. Of course, these are the people who backed Obammie and his Commies, so they are being given a free ride.

Meanwhile, Obammie the Commie is going to investigate the legitimate type of speculator, the lower-level investor who is just trying see an ROI on a risky investment.

Again, the leftists are trying to demonize the free-market side of the equation while protecting the “Corporate Socialists” (those enterprises that collude with the government for monopolistic control over a market sector and to eliminate competition).


9 posted on 04/23/2011 5:25:56 PM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (Prepare for survival.)
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To: pepperdog
"I don’t understand, if the govt inflates the debt away won’t dollars be worth less? Seems to me silver would be even more valuable, why would it be worth less too? I really don’t understand. "

Yes...silver would be worth more.

10 posted on 04/23/2011 5:27:41 PM PDT by blam
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
"The left (headed by none other than Obammie the Commie at this time) is trying to demonize “speculators.” By using that term, what they are trying to demonize is those who invest in the futures market. "

You are 100% correct. Up is down and down is up.

11 posted on 04/23/2011 5:31:04 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

I won’t be at all surprised is Silver sees 30 this year, but I will be surprised if it doesn’t see 50 after that.

A good drop of 20% (to $37) is a terrific buying opportunity.

Even $40 is a nice chance for those feeling left out to start accumulating, hoping for more of a drop before the bull continues his charge.


12 posted on 04/23/2011 5:33:06 PM PDT by Atlas Sneezed ("If you touch my junk, I'm gonna have you arrested.")
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To: BenLurkin

” Government intends to inflate the debt away “

Which is great for Government and the favored Bankers and Investors —

Not so much for us down here ‘in the weeds’ having to try to buy food and fuel and heat and light with increasingly worthless dollars....

(And you lucky few who still have a job, get a clue — your paycheck will NOT keep pace...)


13 posted on 04/23/2011 5:33:53 PM PDT by Uncle Ike (Rope is cheap, and there are lots of trees...)
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To: Yet_Again

Industrial demand may lessen, but individuals, groups, companies, banks, and countries are loading their vaults as the impending fiat collapse draws nearer.
I believe this “bubble” is just getting legs, and won’t break until $150-$200/oz. silver is upon us. A 10-20% correction will not burst the bubble.


14 posted on 04/23/2011 5:34:22 PM PDT by Fireone (Liberals are just overschooled, undereducated, adult children.)
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To: blam

This guy posted all the black swans listded in the cartoon bear video. Over 30 reasons silver would pop were in the funny video. The actual reasons are posted here:

http://www.oilbull.com/1464/silver-revisiting-the-silver-bear-black-swans/


15 posted on 04/23/2011 5:38:28 PM PDT by bluefish (NoBama! Because Commies Suck)
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To: bluefish

Here is the video (prior link is an itemized list of the black swans):

http://www.oilbull.com/1429/black-swans-silver-the-xtranormal-bears/


16 posted on 04/23/2011 5:40:14 PM PDT by bluefish (NoBama! Because Commies Suck)
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To: blam
one thing the CME could do is to raise margin requirements for Silver speculators;

They have been raising the margin on silver since November. Each time it is less effective at bring the price down for any length of time. There is no evidence another margin hike will be effective now.

otherwise risk is setting up the silver market for an record-setting crash, which could impact many other markets in the process of correcting, especially other commodities like Gold and Crude Oil.

Yes heaven forbid that oil get cheaper. The reason commodities have exploded, including silver, is due to the dollar, the debt, and endless QE. Fix those, and silver will come down. Yes, silver can correct next week, or at any time. But until those reasons are fixed, it will recover and continue up.

17 posted on 04/23/2011 5:40:38 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: pepperdog

The “value” of an ounce of silver won’t change much, however the “price” will change dramatically with the fall of the dollar.


18 posted on 04/23/2011 5:42:59 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
The left (headed by none other than Obammie the Commie at this time) is trying to demonize “speculators.”

Just like Hugo Chavez. Haven't heard from him since Egypt exploded, what is he up to these days?

19 posted on 04/23/2011 5:43:45 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: Ghost of Philip Marlowe
This is NOT speculating. This is none other than the old “trust” style of manipulating the market.

I disagree. Perhaps there is a technical distinction that is being lost. Speculators who hold the physical assets are great.

There is nothing wrong with that, and they can lose as well. The old fashion land speculators, actually owned the land and went bust.

Today's problem are the speculators who 'buy' something, ie ETF's, Oil, without the physical delivery.

Finally, it is the fault of both dems and repubs, not simple rats. Dunno why your pushing the idea that Rats are only responsible.

20 posted on 04/23/2011 5:44:10 PM PDT by Palter (If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it. ~ Mark Twain)
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