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I like Dilbert San Diego’s Post. It’s a much better way of looking at things (state by state) than looking at national numbers.

I like this site to play with scenarios

http://www.270towin.com/

I start with 2008 GOP=173
+6 EV for Census (as per Dilbert)

+1 EV for nebraska’s CD that was calculated separately
+15 EV for N. carolina
+11 EV for indiana
= 206 EV
+ 29 for FL and +18 for Ohio (fingers crossed)
= 253 EV. So need 17 more.

I hope Virginia will come back to GOP (based on 2009-10) but many people in northern virginia are personally benefiting from Obama’s looting of the rest of the country

so lets add +13 for Virgina and then we’re at 266EV

So in addition to the states Dilbert SD mentions we need one more state from the following target list
(New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin).

I think New Hampshire may be most likely especially if we end up with RINomney.

I think Colorado, new mexico and nevada will be tough (GOP lost key races in nevada and colorado in 2020 but did do well in New Mexico).

Wisconsin will be tough too, Prosser recently barely won.

So getting a candidate who can win Virgina and one of new hampshire/iowa/wisconsin is what we need.

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Dilbert San Diego’s post
Obama beat McCain by 365 to 173 in the electoral vote.

Obama has virtually no chance of carrying any of the McCain states, so the Republican nominee starts with a base of the 173. Add about 6 due to gains of electoral votes in these states due to reapportionment, and we’re up to 179 as a base for the Republican.

Add to the Republican column North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, which Obama carried but likely won’t this time. Add back Ohio, which Obama is in trouble in. Add all these, and the Republican is in striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed. Florida could well go Republican in 2012 also. If all of these happen, Obama can’t win re-election, just due to these states alone.

I don’t underestimate Obama and the Dems. and the MSM, but, he’s clearly vulnerable in 2012.