Normally, dropoff is at least 50% by the second weekend, and most movies are gone after three. "Passion of the Christ" was absolutely unique because of the way Mel developed the promotion.
I think this one is going to develop different from most movies. After all, Atlas Shrugged (the book) has been a decent seller for over 50 years, since publication 1n 1957.
In fact, here’s how Wikipedia describes sales: “Atlas Shrugged received largely negative reviews after its 1957 publication, but achieved enduring popularity and consistent sales in the following decades.”
Well, the movie has the negative reviews part accomplished already. Professional reviews at Rottentomatoes.com were universally bad scoring 5/100. Yet Audience Reviews were high (85/100) in spite of being biased downward by people with an ax to grind (the takers/moochers.) This was purportedly the largest spread between professional reviewers and audience reviewers ever seen on that site.
As people discuss this movie, they are going to point out how faithful Part 1 was to the book. That discussion is going to build awareness of the book itself, which very few people under 30 have even heard of, much less read. Book sales are already increasing, and they will probably skyrocket over the next year, as people prepare for Part 2 to be issued on tax-day, 2012.
I don’t know how the movie sales will ultimately go, but word of mouth on the book and the movie are going to be significant.
What those harping on Rand’s anti-religious views miss is that Rand’s economic/political philosophy provides a sound basis for a conservative Christian’s economic/political philosophy without the need to inject the religious aspect into that philosophy. You do so at your own choice, for they are not incompatible. Her book doesn’t tear down religion; it just doesn’t rely upon it for an understanding of politics and economics, topics she understands quite well, obviously, since she essentially foreshadowed the direction the U.S. (and certainly Europe) would take over the next several decades.
The question now is whether those of us who recognize the accuracy of her message are numerous enough and have the political will to turn the country around. If this movie bombs, that will not be a particularly good sign in that regard.
Incidentally, you know how you tend to feel ignorant when someone mentions a scene in a movie (say The Godfather, for example) but you haven’t seen the movie or read the book? There’s going to be a lot of such feelings in the ranks of Independents, and even Conservatives, over the next few weeks. And how does one overcome that feeling of ignorance? One reads the book or goes to the movie, obviously.
That said, I’d suggest that one conversational gambit most of us could try using over the next month or so should be: “Oh, really, you’ve never read Atlas Shrugged? Well, the movie pretty much nailed the first third of the book.”