Posted on 04/16/2011 10:27:55 AM PDT by nickcarraway
Well, thanks for such a thoughtful analysis. Too bad it’s complete nonsense. Conservatives are the largest voting block. In the end, Trump will pull more from the Dems than he will from the Republicans.
If Trump were the R nominee and there was a conservative running as a 3rd party candidate, the story would be different.
There are two types of voters. Hard core supporters and soft supporters who can be swayed by the other side. The size of our base of hard core supporters is larger than the Dems. If a 3rd party candidate comes in and sops up the soft supporters from both sides, the group with the biggest number of hard core supporters will win.
Trouble comes from a 3rd party when it starts to pull hard core supporters away from one side, as happened with Perot. This occurs when the base is disenchanted with the nominee, as they were in 1992 and 1996.
I contend that by the time all is said and done, Trump will be pulling hard core supporters from Obama. He’ll ‘moderate’ (tack hard left) on social issues if he doesn’t win the R nomination. He’ll do exactly what Charlie Crist did.
So, with Trump in the race, it looks just like Rubio vs Crist vs Meeks in Florida 2010, with similar outcome. I wouldn’t go so far as to predict an outright majority in a 3 way race for Palin or another conservative, but it’s not out of the question. I definitely see the conservative winning with a solid plurality.
You are either insane or a giant tool if you believe that Trump as a birther republican nominee would get more dem votes than republican.
I have looked over the field, too, and those who don’t want to run. The best candidate would be Paul Ryan, the Budget Guy. He doesn’t want to run because his children are young.
He has it all. He knows how to clean up the deficit. He is extremely articulate and he is not afraid to face down Obama.
Oh, and, importantly, he is conservative.
What if the Republican nominee doesn’t disagree with Trump asking those questions? What if the Republican nominee agrees that Obama should answer them? Remember, I qualified that the R nominee would need to be a conservative. A wishy-washy RINO who will ‘condemn’ Trump like Pawlenty won’t do. Palin already said that she wasn’t going to make an issue out of it, but didn’t have a problem with Trump asking the questions. I could easily see her joining in by saying that Obama should be transparent about his past. That’s all that’s necessary.
It seems that all you can do is call me names, because you apparently aren’t smart enough to try and look at all of the ways that this will play out over the course of the next year and a half.
These things don’t happen in a vacuum and Trump’s tactics will necessarily change when he doesn’t get the nomination. A Palin vs Trump vs Obama race will be like a tag team against Obama. The people who are impressed with creases in pants will split between Obama and Trump. Conservatives will vote for Palin as a solid voting block. Republicans who only vote Republican no matter what will vote for Palin, maybe holding their nose. Hard core libs will vote for Obama. Moderate libs will peel off and split between Trump and Obama.
I haven’t even gotten into how the media won’t be able to paint BOTH Trump and Palin as lunatic kooks. They’ll only be able to realistically label one of them with that. And it would probably be Trump. So, Trump could end up making Palin look more attractive to ‘moderates’. That would be the way that she could end up getting a straight out majority over the other two.
It’ll take a while to see how this whole thing plays out, but the people who are cowering in fear over Trump are simply having a kneejerk reaction.
“So how many years are we supposed to excuse? Did you excuse those same years for Obama? If Obama asked for you to ignore his past, would you?”
If the maggot disclosed all his records (and they miraculously didn’t disqualify him for office), renounced his Marxist/socialist/Communist associates, and actively worked for fiscal conservatism and smaller government, I’d have to consider it.
Sounds like a plan!
Yes, I wasn’t near this sick when Bill was in office.
Not like this
bipartisan = twice as bad
More than twice, isn’t the phrase “geometrical progression” or something?
Like compounding interest.
I have legitimate criticisms about Trump, but I’ll hold my fire because what I saw in the last presidential election was two smelly piles... pile of shiite A (MuBarak Hussein) and pile of shiite B (Keating5 McCain)...
I’d gladly take Trump over McCain, Julie-Annie, Shiite Romney, or Hickabee...
I really don’t get the numbers of people freaking out about Trump not being conservative. He hasn’t announced his run, to my knowledge; he’s just sticking it to 0’bastard.
And that’s good enough for me right now. None of the Repubs are, and that’s enough to taint ‘em all with a very bad odor. When people start announcing they’re running for Pres that will be a different discussion. Right now, attacking the fraud is happening, and it’s a sight for sore eyes, or a raincloud dropping rain in a drought.
If Trump is in cahoots with Hitlery, it’ll all be made clear.
Trump’s own audio clips from Mark Levin show.
Devastating in my opinion, and I’m sad to say they were a real eye-opener to me. Decide for yourself.
http://legalinsurrection.blogspot.com/2011/04/sound-trumpet.html
“I want something more positive to look forward to, like whomever wins would put this nightmare in the rearview mirror.”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
It would be wonderful to have that happen but far too much of this nightmare is beyond the capacity of any mortal man to rectify in the near future. Obama is not the cause of our problems, he is only the most visible symptom. We are suffering the results of our overconfidence. For too many years we were told that, “This too shall pass” and “The Republic will survive”. This time it will not pass quickly and we will be fortunate indeed, in fact it will be little short of a miracle if the Republic survives. In many respects it is a question of whether the Republic can be restored, there is little enough left of it as it is now.
Are you forgetting that Hillary started as a Republican? She was a “Goldwater Girl” when she arrived at Wellesley (tho too young to vote for him) and IIRC, was prez of or at least active in Young Republicans on campus.
Well no one here is considering voting for Hillary for Presient, now, are they? Nor is she trying to pass herself off as a republican NOW.
And when did Trump do that? Today was his first foray into the Tea Party? Where was he two years ago? In the 2010 elections?
You don’t believe in conversions and/or redemption? Or just plain political practicality?
I’m not so sure why everyone’s flying off the handle now about who might possibly be running for the GOP nomination. There’s not ONE declared candidate. So why can’t we let them each have their say and then make up our minds? Maybe even develop a consensus? I think all this shredding of potential candidates serves no purpose.
I often wonder, if the internet had been available in the summer of ‘80 how many conservatives would have abandoned Reagan for choosing GHWB as his running mate? That wasn’t highly ‘principled’ but it was a good choice in that it united both wings of the GOP and led to a Reagan-Bush victory in the Fall. With a big boost from Jimmy Carter. Politics makes strange bedfellows. Always has, always will.
...and all of the Rinos running for President are conservatives?
Trump is where he is at because the GOP has done a crappy job of taking the bull by the horn and doing what American voters charged them doing in 2010 elections. Trump is filling the void that GOP and RNC has left vacated because they choose to run good ole boys.
I could see that scenario, but I think third party hurts us more in the long run. After listening to Trump on Rush-—and by the way, on the surface he tried to sing the right song all show-—it is very clear he is clueless about the nature of Democrats. Next.
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