Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Uncle Miltie; SAJ; algernonpj; CutePuppy; Toddsterpatriot; BfloGuy; rabscuttle385
Some day the people who bellyache about how they liked the 'old' CPI are going to have to say which old way it is they're talking about.
11 posted on 04/15/2011 9:46:23 AM PDT by expat_panama
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies ]


To: expat_panama; Uncle Miltie; algernonpj; JerseyHighlander; All
Non-sequential thoughts on what does and doesn't make sense in the BLS CPI index:

It makes sense to exclude extremely volatile items from Core CPI, as it would make it difficult to evaluate from month to month or Y-o-Y, whether the spike or fall in market prices of energy and food staples are temporary (due to crop drought or weather anomalies, geological conditions, geopolitical upheaval(s), industrial accident(s) etc.) or more permanent developments. The good thing is, that if energy cost is more "permanent" (let's say, stays at a "new normal" level for 3-6 months. it tends to seep into and be reflected in the prices of consumer products (including food) due to costs associated with production and delivery of such products...

In other words, we'll see "permanent" cost increase/decrease of generally volatile products reflected in Core CPI anyway, with some lag, after it's incorporated in the cost of the products or service, but the Core line will be smoothed over period of time, rather than sharp spike up or down or non-Core index.

Another reason it makes sense to exclude food prices from non-Core CPI is that generally they does not comprise a large percentage of household expenditures (generally, the lower the household income the more it's affected by food prices). Food and energy prices are also varied widely depending on where household is located, rural or urban areas, cities and states. However, along with gasoline (part of energy cost), it's one of the most visible and comparable costs for the U.S. households, so it generates the most heated and emotional complaints about "inflation". Food is also the most likely subject to "hedonic" substitution or even [temporary?] exclusion from the people's diet (BTW, dog/cat/pets food maybe a notable exception from this but I believe that it doesn't quite affect the CPI so it's irrelevant for this discussion).

It makes sense to use and periodically adjust "hedonic" regression / substitution, or we would still be working with the cost of buggy whips and costs of cleaning up horse manure from the streets. Yes, it's open to some political biases and influences, but likely less than generally suspected.

Buying generic label cereals or canned food, using bicycle, motorcycle, more efficient car or carpool, for example, are forms of hedonic substitution that are commonly practiced, but might be difficult to reflect in index without detailed data measuring these on a regular basis. Also, technology is a relatively constant disinflationary force, so giving it a higher weighting in the index would tend to pull index down.

Depending on the mix of the items in the BLS basket relative to what we tend to purchase (as a percentage of our income or costs) we will all see the different "realities" of COL... in other words, to people it's subjective and personal, while BLS is attempting to reflect the "average" CPI.

Also, we should not forget that recent droughts in the U.S., Australia, Africa, lingering long-term fiscal and monetary problems in certain EU countries (PIIGS) and dangerous political instability in Africa and Middle East, along with misguided politically motivated subsidies and "green" / environmental policies (not just in the U.S) have sent prices of food staples and energy (particularly oil) sharply higher in recent months. Add to that the huge inflation in China and India (and less relevant, in Brazil) which for years have been exporting deflation but are now starting to export [relative] inflation, and that the U.S. is just now coming out from the Great Recession and sharp disinflation (from about H2 of 2007 through 2010), and some inflation in the recovery ought to be expected.

BLS is doing a pretty good job of collecting data, and decent job of comprising and analyzing index, and separating Core from non-Core components. That said, no system is perfect and would satisfy everyone. Given that the data points are detailed in BLS reports, anyone can "personalize" their own "basket" of items and index it based on the weighting they want to attribute to each item, as they most affect the author of the index.

As long as we don't try to compare the today's cost of the "basket of apples" with the last year's cost of the "basket of oranges," we should do fine in proving just about anything we want, from our own view on price inflation/deflation.

There are credible attempts to create other indices that measure "price inflation" or consumer cost. Here is the most interesting recent one - MIT's BPP (Billion Prices Project) at http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=USA

It's a set of interactive charts of Daily Online Price Index, Annual Inflation and Monthly Inflation. Keep in mind the differences from BLS CPI, but it's exactly why it may attract some people who are suspicious about BLS CPI - it only uses online price data, data is NOT "seasonally" adjusted, BPP includes the food prices but doesn't include energy prices.

Both CPI and BPP were up significantly in the last couple of months, but not much on Y-o-Y basis.

Some references that may be of interest:

From Why inflation hurts more than it did 30 years ago | Inflation hurts more than it did 30 years ago for Americans stuck with flat income - AP via Breitbart, 2011 March 18

From Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure | Inflation Using Volcker-Era Methodology Nearing 10% - CNBC, by John Malloy, 2011 April 12


31 posted on 04/16/2011 7:02:03 PM PDT by CutePuppy (If you don't ask the right questions you may not get the right answers)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson