Social security is still taking in more than it puts out, IIRC, if only barely. Ditto Medicare. Defense has already been cut, especially compared to the levels of the 50s and 60s, both as a fraction of the federal budget, and as a fraction of the overall economy. All those Air Force Wings, Navy Carrier Groups and Army Divisions that no longer exist are testament to that.
In 1962 defense spending was 9.3% of GDP, in 2009 it was 4.6% and had been as low as 3.0% in 2002. (The increase being due to the wars and the faltering economy resulting in a lower GDP than it otherwise would have been). Meanwhile entitlements have gone from 6.1% of GDP in ‘62 to 16.1% in ‘09. Total federal outlays were 18.8% in ‘62 24.7% in ‘09.
It had been 20.9% in ‘08. ‘09 being the first budget from the all Democrat House Senate and White House. Entitlements alone when from 12.4% to 16.1% in ‘08 to ‘09 while defense went from 4.2% to 4.6%.
Total numbers of active duty personnel are little changed from ‘04, but the Army and Marines have increased while Navy and Air Force have decreased. When we complete the pull out from Iraq and later Afghanistan, the Army and Marines will be cut, but the others will not be be increased. In fact I’d expect AF and Navy numbers to be cut some more as well, since many are serving in “non traditional” roles as convoy security, base defense, and so forth, rather than keeping ‘em flying or sailing.
Total number of AF aircraft, including Guard and Reserve has shrunk from 6,073 in ‘04 to 5,544 in ‘09. The number of ICBMs has shrunk from 523 in ‘03 to 450 in ‘09. That included all the Peacekeepers and 10% of the 500 Minuteman III’s we had in ‘03.
So, as with cities and other localities threatening to cut fire and police, the feds use threats of Military and SS cuts to avoid cutting things not authorized by the Constitution, but which help keep said politicians in power. That’s not to say that SS is not huge future problem, or that it is Constitutionally authorized. But in fact it’s in effect been masking overspending in other areas, since it’s been taking in more than it puts out and the surplus has been replaced by IOUs from the treasury.
SS went in the red last year and will be even more so this year due to Obama’s payroll tax cut.
Defense spending is up 32% since 2008 and 55% since 2006.
We are in deep doo doo but I’m not worried that the Democrats don’t admit it. I am worried that the Republicans won’t admit how much spending *must* be cut.
I agree that the military should be the last of those to have cuts. We should take on Medicare and SSI first. But each of them are close to 20% of the budget. And each have waste. We need to be willing to cut some of the military budget in order to actual reign in federal spending.
If we took out 1/3 of Medicare and SSI, and 15% of defense, we would save 500 billion. I think that should be the plan for the next cycle (2012), assuming we have at least the House and either Senate or Pres.
And then, we should have a goal (as a movement) within the next 20 years to cut Medicare down to 1/2 and private half of the remaining SSI, while cutting defense another 10%. This would cut an extra 350 billion. If we can get 850 billion cut within the next 25 years, I think that is the plan to work towards. That would result in 1/2 current Medicare, 1/3 of current SSI, and 3/4 of current Defense. Hopefully we will be out of Irag and Afghanistan by then, so that will be a large chunk of defense. And I think it will be palatable to cut Medicare and SSI with some moderates if we take some of the top off Defense as well.