No, you would think that if the voters REALLY rallied behind Republicans in 1995 after 3 weeks of a shutdown after Newt publically bragged that he would shutdown the government (as some here want MB to do) that it would have been Clinton who caved instead of Newt. You would have thought that Clinton would have had a challenge in 1996.
Newt gave into all of Clintons demands including back pay for the three weeks government workers were off, costing more not less to close the government. Do you call that a victory?
I dont see any polls that show that shutting down the government 'in itself' is popular. What makes you think that if Republicans royally screw this up now and cave under overwhelming public pressure that they will even try to fight later? They can only win if they win.
my point was that the idea that the shutdown in 95 led to Clinton winning in 96 and hurt the GOP really doesn’t hold up. They went from 230 seats won in the house to 228. In the Senate they actually gained two seats and went from 53 to 55. So the effect in both houses of Congress was net even. We saw what happened in 2010 and 2008 and 2006 when the public is mad at Congress and blames them, the on epary loses a whole bunch of seats. A loss of two seats was no big deal.
As for Clinton, is there any legitimate case to be made that if the shutdown had never happened Dole would have won? Does anyone believe Dole lost because of the shutdown? Again, even with the shutdown, polls showed that if Colin Powell was the GOP nominee instead of Dole he’d have beaten Clinton by double digits. Again, even after the shutdown the GOP would have clobbered Clinton with a different candidate.
I’m just saying that I think some people are playing chicken little with what the effects of a shutdown would be. The shutdown in 95 didn’t really end up hurting the GOP all that much.