Trump running is one thing, trump winning is not going to happen.
You must not know a lot of independent voters. The idea of voting for a celebrity businessman is a very easy sell to about 1/3 of the electorate. The same 1/3 that voted for Biden's clean, articulate black man. Wring your hands at the state of the American electorate, but that swing middle vote is fickle. The One's novelty burned bright, but now it's fading fast. The Donald can suck that swing voter oxygen out of the room in a way that, oh, I dunno, Tim Pawlenty can't.
In saner times, Trump wouldn't have a blessed chance at the Republican nomination, much less the White House. But, times have changed. If you take off the conservative lens, and look at him in relation to the American people at large, it's pretty clear that his odds of winning a general election are really quite good.