Kristol: Palin probably won't, shouldn't be nominee

Politico ^ | March 230, 2011 | Ben Smith

[Alas Babylon!]

Quote:

Actually, Palin is in somewhat better shape versus Obama than Reagan was at this point against Carter. In December 1978, Carter led Reagan in the Gallup poll by 57-35%. Even after he clinched the nomination, in the spring of 1980, national opinion polls showed Reagan trailing Carter by 25%. (Time, March 31, 1980) http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,921912-1,00.html#ixzz0lPAErDI8

Read it here: Palin's Reagan Like Poll numbers (Palin in same spot politically as Reagan in 1978)

[AFreeBird]

Oh, so by not abandoning the people of Alaska, she would have eaten up staff time and money answering frivolous ethics charges from the Daily KOS/DU ankle biter crowd, and bankrupt her family with legal bills in the process.

But you’d be okay with that cause that’s the mark of a true leader that cares about her people - right?

Boy howdy you’re right. That’s someone I’d want to vote for. /s

[unique]

I would vote for Palin in less than a heartbeat. Unfortunately, she has to win over the swing voters. I doubt that she can do this.

If you really believe that that will happen, shouldn't you go for someone else as the Republican nominee to avoid this disaster? And that's the point - the swing voters will once again elect the next POTUS - that's 10-15% of voters - does Palin have any chance of swinging that group to her way or thinking and communicating - her background, experience - the first female POTUS? I say no.

It's all about risk management - Palin is a very high risk potential nominee - a risk that we cannot afford, she will lose.

[Grunthor]

The old RINO hacks should just be ignored ..... Grunthor

I’m sorry Poly I cannot recall posting that (even though I feel it a lot) in fact I think my first post on this thread said simply that I plan on fighting like hell for the most conservative person to become our nominee but will support whoever wins the nod over Obama. I have not even posted wether or not I support Palin much less attacked those that do not.

Where did I say anything about the old RINO hacks? In fact I believe that I am a RINO as the majority of the elected members of the party at least at the federal level do not appear to be conservatives. Sure, compared to Socialists they all look like Reagan and they talk a good game but that type of thinking just gets us to the socialist utopia at a slightly slower pace.

I’d like to know where you got that quote from me, maybe it’s been a while since I posted that and I simply don’t remember.

Thank you.

[Finny]

Good post -- thanks for sharing the detailed info.

Of course, it won't be allowed by the folks here who claim it's only "common sense" that she can't win .... *rolls eyes*

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Fortunately for us, the emerging candidates still only have barely 50% name recognition with the public. Given the right exposure, that can change in a hurry. Reagan saw a similar effect after the public first learned he was a candidate. His past popularity with the Public, positive name recognition and successful 2 terms as Governor of California was Reagan's greatest advantage.

[colorado tanker]

From your lips to God’s ears!

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

Does she have the chance to win those states, and possibly the nomination? Sure she does. But that's the easy part, because you can win a party's nomination even if only 20% of the eligible voters voted for you.

The real question is whether she will be able to overcome the negatives and actually get the necessary votes in the general election. To do that, she is going to have to change the minds of a lot of people who don't have a positive opinion of her, and I haven't seen her do anything since she first appeared on the scene in 2008 suggesting she can do that. Her base has remained strong, but the number of converts she gets seems small.

[COgamer]

“whoever is the winner will have my vote over Obama.”

My exclusion category is the same as before: if Giuliani runs, he will not get my vote even if he somehow does win the primaries. And possibly Newt, for most of the same reasons.

Pretty much anybody else, even the Flipper, would get some consideration if it came right down to the wire vs. Obama. It’s all but guaranteed (since dems are defending so many seats, and so many weak ones) that we’ll gain control of the senate and have both houses. A repeal of Obamacare is inevitable - and it’d be easier without Obama in the White House to veto the bill.

A second term, where he had nothing to lose, could get really ugly.

[Red Steel]

Evening Star's faux pas or let slip the truth?

[Grunthor]

I personally despised McCain and did not vote for him.

There is no one mentioned as a possible nominee of the GOP that I have as strong of negative feelings for as I do McCain. Therefore I will vote for whosoever gets the nomination.

The nation cannot handle 4 more years.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

I very much agree!

[Mears]

bfl

[Finny]

Bravo! Excellent post, especially your definition of “independent” and “moderate.” WELL SAID!

[Polybius]

The claim is that the Republican elites don't like her. A lot of Freepers don't think she is the best candidate either. Rightly or wrongly, that means that she has opposition even within the party in which she needs overwhelming support to get elected.

In February's FOX News Poll (not a liberal poll - a FOX NEWS poll), 56% of all REPUBLICANS thought that Sarah Palin would NOT be a good President.

Among Independents, the 800 pound gorilla of the general election, the number who believed that Sarah Palin would NOT be a good President was downright toxic at 69%.

FOX News Poll (February 7-9, 2011)

Question 3: I am going to read you a list of names. Tell me if you think that person would make a good President or not.

Sarah Palin:

.................YES.........NO.......DK.....Never heard of

ALL...........23%.......72%.........4%.......1%

Dem ...........7%........87%........5%.......1%

Rep ...........40%.......56%.......3%.......1%

Ind ...........25%........69%.......3%.......1%

Sarah Palin does not even do well among Republicans but, in a three-way race with two other Republican candidates splitting the vote, she could theoretically win the Republican nomination.

However, since Republicans only constitute 29% of all voters, the absolutely toxic numbers that Palin has outside of her small group of devoted followers will guarantee a general election defeat of Biblical proportions.

The problem with Palin supporters is that they have spent months in an Echo Chamber preaching to their own choir in an endless worship service in the Church of Saint Sarah Palin.

Even on Free Republic, anybody that dared to say anything worrisome about their object of adoration was shouted down as a "RINO" or as somebody having "PDS".

In the Real World, such irrational behavior gets you just as far as it gets the Far-Left wingnuts when they call anybody that they disagree with a "Fascist".

Now that other Republican candidates are throwing their hat in the ring, for the first time on Free Republic, more FReepers are coming out to point out the very dangerous final outcome of a Sarah Palin nomination:

A GUARANTEED Obama landslide in 2012.

In the February 2011 FOX News Poll -- Question 19:

Barack Obama utterly DESTROYS Sarah Palin 56% to 35%.

[Palladin]

Bill Kristol is so 80’s.

Sarah Palin is the best conservative candidate right now.

I saw Newt on TV last night and thought I was looking at Grover Cleveland! Man, Newt has really expanded. He shares a few vices with Cleveland, too!

[AFreeBird]

There ya go again, spewing out logic to those who can’t comprehend.

I’d love to see it work, but thus far, I’ve been disappointed.

We’re most likely preaching to the Daily KOS/DU/RINO crowd. But who knows, maybe some lurkers will get a clue, so such efforts may not be futile.

[Palladin]

The pissant is gone?

I didn’t even notice.

[RichInOC]

Rich: Bill Kristol won’t and probably shouldn’t be the judge of that.

[Polybius]

The old RINO hacks should just be ignored ..... Grunthor

I’m sorry Poly I cannot recall posting that

I thought you did. Let me check.

Ooooops!

Totally my fault. I made an error in the "Cut & Paste Department". Your post was Number 2 and I was trying to quote Number 3.

Sorry about that. I apologize.

***************

He cannot be allowed a second term. ...... 2 posted on Wednesday, March 23, 2011 9:48:30 AM by Grunthor

To: EveningStar ... The old RINO hacks should just be ignored .... 3 posted on Wednesday, March 23, 2011 9:49:54 AM by GeronL