“This means that an entire BWR core, consisting of hundreds of fuel rods, each consisting of ceramic, uranium-oxide pellets stacked in a tube, 6 feet long, made of zirconium, has melted into a blob. The blob has not melted through the reactor vessel. Unfortunately, the core was at the end of a burn cycle, meaning that it contained a maximum load of “fission products,” all of which are wildly radioactive. Those products which will dissolve in steam are free to wander out of the vessel, through the steam-relief valves, and into the atmosphere through what used to be the roof over the reactor building. Most of the gaseous effluent will waft over the Pacific ocean and be lost forever. Some of it will rain down on the main island of Japan, which has plenty of other worries right now.
Depending on the wind-speed/direction, the fallout will be dangerous up to about 5 miles from the plant. Evacuating beyond 5 miles is being appropriately cautious. Some of the products, such as I-131, St-90, and Cs-137, are extremely dangerous. Some, like Ar-41 or Xe-131, are not.”
More from my friend on newer designs:
“One important point I neglected to make: The problem of aux generators being down is unique to Generation-II nuclear plants, such as this elderly GE installation. The Generation-III and Generation-III+ plants currently being installed, such as the AP1000s at Vogtle, DO NOT suffer from dead power at the site.
The Gen-III/III+ power units have passive cooling systems designed in. If everything has gone down, the reactor is still able to maintain cooling flow, with no pumps running. Coolant runs on gravity and convection. The diesel generators were seen as a weakness decades ago,
and have been designed out of the safety systems for the newer reactors.
Gen-II reactors are considered obsolete, and they will retire as their design lives play out.
For that matter, Gen-III reactor designs are somewhat obsolete, and Gen-IV reactors, with further safety enhancements, are being developed.
All small, modular reactor designs currently seeking licenses have passive cooling features.”