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To: Quix
(1) 3.5-6.5M within 2-degrees of Mt. Diablo (Lat 37.9N; Lon. 121.9W)

First off, notice he puts it in degrees to make it LOOK like a smaller area; people don't understand that a degree is huge: Berkland's area is something along the lines of 200 miles wide by 268 miles tall, extending WELL beyond the San Francisco Bay Area.

Consulting an earthquake database for quakes 3.5-6.5 in this area from 2000 to 2010; you find 224; this means that in any given week, there's a 40% chance that Berkland is right by dumb luck.

(2) 3.5-6.5M within 2-degrees of Los Angeles (34.0N; 118.0W)

Same search procedure results in 322 such earthquakes in the last 10 years; this means he's going to get a hit 62% of the time by sheer dumb luck.

So, a 40% chance of being right by dumb luck for prediction 1; 61% chance of being right by dumb luck for prediction 2; His 3rd prediction covers a gigantic magnitude range over TWO states, and his 4th prediction 30% chance of being right by dumb luck.

In sum, this virtually GUARANTEES he'll be right one ONE of the predictions every week, usually two, and every once in a while 3 of the 4(no doubt resulting in showers of praise from his sychophantic, yet utterly clueless fans).

Basically, Berkland is exploiting public ignorance of just how many small-medium earthquakes there are.

The Emperor has no clothes.

98 posted on 03/17/2011 11:31:40 PM PDT by Strategerist (There is only so much stupidity one man can prevent - Andrew Marshall)
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To: Strategerist

Much appreciate your clear elaboration.

Thx Thx.


99 posted on 03/17/2011 11:35:52 PM PDT by Quix (Times are a changin' INSURE you have believed in your heart & confessed Jesus as Lord Come NtheFlesh)
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