Should I sell every US Treasury Bond I have?
Yes, IMHO.
Whether inflation or generalized sovereign default, you don't want to be holding US Treasuries.
The are also a tough hold during a severe deflation as there will not be sufficient buyers to suck them up even at their original purchase price. The are an illiquid asset in severe deflation...but if you can hold on and the issuing government survives you did OK.
But not nearly as well as those who were holding cash. A 50% monetary deflation will drive some real things to greater than a 50% drop as the poison clears the system. Homes, farmland, businesses, capital assets of every sort will be cheap, cheap cheap.
Think 3-1 purchasing power...or potentially higher.
Should I sell every US Treasury Bond I have?
Ummmm...yes. Right now.
FWIW, we have.
Whoa there, slick.
When did you buy these Treasuries?
NB that Gross and PIMCO are constantly moving in and out of bonds, maturity of bonds, classes of bonds, etc. They have 10’s of billions of dollars that they have to move around every year based on bond portfolios rolling, etc.
If you set up a bond ladder of varying maturities and it is kicking off a good income stream, the only reasons to sell are because a) you were planning on selling the bonds at some future date and NOT holding them to maturity, or b) because you think the US government will default on those bonds the way GM did on their bondholders.
“Should I sell every US Treasury Bond I have?”
None of us know the answer to that, no matter how much we pontificate. If we did, we would not be posting on FR. We would be somewhere else making a billion dollars. Of course, that is what Gross is trying to do. Nevertheless, following Gross is a loser’s game. By the time you know what he did, it’s too late. For all we know, he is already back in bonds (admittedly very unlikely). He certainly will not tell us he is getting back in until he’s already in.