bttt
“..back to 99 dollars for oil.” ~ ChicagoConservative27
Here is some non-conventional thinking on that subject:
Morocco, Syria, Libya, Bahrain and Egypt. They are some of the biggest ever-loving Islamic hellholes on the planet.
None of them is a major oil producer. For example, Libya, the largest of the five, produces around one million barrels of crude a day. LESS THEN 1% GLOBAL OF DEMAND.
But Saudi Arabia alone sits on 4 million barrels a day of excess production it CAN’T sell.
Overall, the world has excess capacity of over 10 million barrels per day. The number keeps rising. Quietly, without fanfare, the Saudis have increased their production capacity. Russian fields keep increasing their capacity. And Canada is ramping up to bring more of its vast oil sands to market. And don’t forget the huge new discoveries.
The world could lose every drop of Libyan oil and never miss it. Libyan supply cuts would only last for a short time. Whoever ends up running Libya will move heaven and hell to get the oil revenue flowing back into their pockets again.
Like starving lions, producers the world over are desperate. Production greatly exceeds demand. Global inventories far far exceed demand. They have to find new customers. Despite the spin, the world has a vast over supply of oil.
The big news is that, in my opinion, this N. African/Egyptian crisis has peaked. Nothing significant will change. The dictators of these Islamic hellholes will be replaced by other dictators or Islamic fundamentalist crazies.
The only real major threat was that Saudi Arabia would get dragged into the turmoil. The chances of that happening were always remote. ...
And that means the world is not at risk. Saudi oil will not be interrupted.
What about Egypt? Despite media hyperbole, nothing has really changed there. The military was in control before. They are in control now. I have every reason to believe they will stay in control. One figurehead from the military will replace another.
After the upcoming elections, some new heads will be seated at the table. None with a clear majority. But so what? Egypt’s economy is tiny. ..
Same with .. Morocco. It makes T-shirts in sweat shops, and runs call centers into France. ..
Syria is even less significant. It produces no oil. Its claim to fame is that it likes killing Jews in Israel ...
Bahrain? Its ad agencies desperately try to spin it as paradise on earth. .. The most important thing about its uprising is that the opening Formula 1 race there has been postponed.
As for Libya, I already showed you how the world will not miss Libyan production. The huge over-supply of global oil would immediately make up the missing barrels.
Before long the world will take a deep breath. CNN will move on to the next hot news item. People will put these events in their proper perspective.
But the uprisings in Northern Africa... the market’s misunderstanding of them... and the manipulators who are seizing this opportunity to drive the markets even further into LaLa land... are giving us some phenomenal opportunities.
Gold was on its way to under $1300 an ounce. Then this latest Islamic uprising flared up.
Since then gold has rallied $100, to over $1400. ..
Gold now is in a similar situation as it was in January 1980. Peaking, about to have its biggest wipeout ever. ..
Oil is trading at over $90 a barrel. ..
Silver is another phenomenal market. .. running up to over $30 an ounce. A price not seen since the Bunker Hunt manipulation top of the late 1970s.
This present silver bubble will end up like Bunker’s did. In a crash that takes silver to a few dollars an ounce. ...
They are some of the greatest trades I’ve ever seen. They are based on two things. 1) Incredible market manipulations, and 2) incredible media hype, that has blown the latest Islamic insanity way out of proportion.
Calmer heads make money. Hysterics always end up losing their ass.
Wall Street is trying to sell you another Big Lie. Supposedly — because of China/Asian demand, riots, war, drought and pestilence — we are running out of oil, copper, platinum, palladium, silver, gold, rice, cocoa, cotton, corn, soybeans, wheat, and every other key commodity on the planet.
Could the world really be that unlucky? Could all these items somehow fall into short supply... all at exactly the same time?
How can that be? ..any real analysis shows supplies greatly outpace demand... and Wall Street manipulations have driven prices to their bubble highs.
These supply “shortages” are phony. Just like the phony commodities shortages of 2008, that also crashed. But due to these crises, everyone is buying gold. Stocks have been till now soaring. Grain prices have doubled and more. ...
Three years ago Wall Street was manipulating the global real estate market. You saw how that turned out. Two years ago we were at $150 a barrel oil. Eventually it plunged to under $40. Agricultural commodities were soaring to the moon. Just like now. It all ended in tears.
Now Wall Street is manipulating the global stock and commodities markets. This will end in a similar disaster.
It’s incredible to me, how people constantly get fooled. These guys have proven over and over they create speculative bubbles. Bubbles that always end up bursting, and wiping out the masses. .... ~ Nick Guarino (a perma-bear)
PS: The markets have gotten all whipped up into a frenzy over two things. One, the Iranian fleet is sailing through the Suez Canal. And two, Ghadaffi the Wacky is about to meet his just reward, for his lifetime of terrorizing his people.
Excuse me! Was there any doubt that Ghadaffi would eventually end up in a pool of blood?
As for the Iranian ships in the Suez Canal: the Iranian “fleet” consists of two broken-down, technologically-obsolete warships. One Israeli jet, flying from its air base in Damona, piloted by a 19-year old kid, tough as nails who grew up on a Kibbutz, could take out both ships in 30 seconds. He would be back at his base in ten minutes after firing his air to sea, in this case, Iranian ship killing missiles, sipping his morning cup of mint tea.
This is not saber rattling by Iran. It’s the equivalent of a cub scout showing his friends in the boys bathroom of their local grade school his 2 inch pen knife.
PPS: In this crisis, the world has bought dollars en masse, taking the dollar higher. The world keeps buying more U.S. government securities, taking their yields even lower. Confirming our fundamental view, that in times of crisis the world will flee to dollars, is correct.
Great post.
Hee hee hee
WPRI: Walker asking for same bargaining flexibility Obama has
2/23/2011
http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=227991
CONTACT: WPRI Senior Fellow Christian Schneider, (608) 347-0471; Manhattan Institute Fellow Steven Malanga, (646)-839-3326
Manhattan Institute Fellow Steven Malanga tells WPRI that the only reason President Obama could freeze wages is that he is not constrained by same laws Gov. Walker is trying to scale back
Steven Malanga pointed out in an interview with the WPRI’s Christian Schneider Wednesday that federal workers do not have the right to bargain for wages or benefits – a fact that allowed President Barack Obama to impose a public-sector wage freeze.
“Federal workers do not have the right to bargain collectively for either benefits or wages,” said Malanga. “(Wisconsin Gov. Scott) Walker would only take away that right to bargain for benefits. The president has already exercised his power over federal workers when he imposed a wage freeze on them earlier this year, something that was prominently reported. By contrast, governors in states with collective bargaining cannot impose a wage freeze. And this has really limited the ability not only of governors but mayors and county executives.”
Obama recently called the effort to scale back collective bargaining rights in Wisconsin an “assault” on unions.
Malanga called the effort here the difference between “long-term reform versus short-term reform.” He pointed out that California enacted comprehensive pension reform in 1991. In 1999, pension reforms were rescinded and California has had budget issues ever since 2003, he said.
Malanga said that if Walker succeeds he will embolden other governors. He also pointed out, however, that individual states often have different circumstances. Republicans control the governor’s mansion in New Jersey, for instance, but do not have a Republican Legislature.
Malanga is also City Journal’s senior editor and a RealClearMarkets.com columnist. He is the author of the recently published book, “Shakedown: The Continuing Conspiracy Against the American Taxpayer,” which highlights the bankrupting of state and local governments by a new political powerhouse led by public-sector unions.
The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, established in 1987, is a nonpartisan, not-for-profit think tank working to engage Wisconsinites in discussions and timely action on key public policy issues critical to the state’s future.
A podcast of Schneider’s interview with Malanga is available at: http://www.wpri.org/pages/podcasts.html#Malanga