GWYNNE DYER
Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent Canadian journalist, syndicated columnist and military historian.
Posted on 02/19/2011 7:16:51 AM PST by Son House
LONDON, England -- There is an extraordinary disconnect between what the experts write about oil prices, and what is likely to happen out in the real world. The pundits inhabit an economist's perfect dream-world, where oil prices respond to changes in supply and demand that are driven mainly by production costs and economic conditions. In the real world, it's a lot more complex.
The question of price is back on the table because oil just broke through the $100-per-barrel level for the second time in history. The first time was July, 2008, when it briefly reached $147 per barrel, before falling back to a low of $33 the following December. But the experts have concluded that this time, cheap oil is never coming back.
A typical offering was a document published by the oil-industry giant BP a couple of weeks ago. BP Energy Outlook 2030 forecast that fossil fuels - oil, gas and coal - will still account for 80% of primary energy worldwide in 2030.
Moreover, total world-energy consumption will grow very fast. Demand in the developed countries will not grow by much, if at all, in the next 20 years, but it will rise by almost two-thirds in the larger economies of the developing world, notably China and India.
If 80% of the energy mix is still fossil fuels in 20 years' time, then the amount that the world burns will have to rise, too. Oil currently accounts for 35% of primary energy in the world, and if that ratio persists, then we're going to need a lot more of the stuff. That means the price will go up and stay up.
Finding new oil will get more expensive, for the cheap, "sweet" oil in easy-to-reach places was developed first. Most of the new oil will be found under the sea, or in the Arctic, or trapped in tar sands in Canada and Venezuela, or it will be "sour" oil with a high sulphur content. The price per barrel has to be high to make it worthwhile to develop those resources - but it will stay high because the demand for oil is going to rise so steeply.
Or so it says in BP Energy Outlook 2030. Well, you didn't expect an oil company to publish a report saying demand for its product is going to dwindle and prices fall, did you? But BP's analysis leaves out politics, technology and even fashion.
The politics first. One major implication of a rising demand for oil is that the importance of Middle Eastern oil will grow, for this is the one place where relatively modest investments can increase production rapidly. However, the Middle East is unpredictable politically, and getting more so by the moment. The consumers hate uncertainty, and this gives them a strong incentive to move to alternative sources of energy.
Concerns about global warming are pushing them in the same direction. The key to stopping the warming is to cut the amount of fossil fuels we are burning, and ultimately to stop using them entirely.
Government programs to do that already exist in most countries, and even in the U.S., where Congress blocks direct action, the Obama administration has used the Environmental Protection Agency to raise the fuel efficiency standard for American-built vehicles to 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. (The current average is 25 mpg.) That alone will result in a 29% cut in American oil usage.
Now the technology. The hunt for a substitute fuel for vehicles is already underway. ExxonMobil, for example, is investing $600 million US in research into producing a cost-effective alternative from biomass - specifically, from algae that require no agricultural land and use only waste or salt water.
A rival process would combine hydrogen with carbon dioxide drawn directly from the air (by "artificial trees," a technology that is developing very fast), to create an octane-type fuel for cars. Like its algae-based rival, this fuel would be carbon-neutral, and could be delivered through existing distribution systems and used in current vehicle engines. Either solution would be a real challenger to $100-per-barrel oil.
And finally, fashion. In the 1934 movie It Happened One Night, Clark Gable, the leading male-movie idol of the day, undressed to get into bed with Claudette Colbert (they were married, of course), and under his shirt was . . . a bare chest! He wasn't wearing an undershirt! Shock, horror - and then the treacherous thought: Why are we all wearing undershirts? In less than a year, the market for undershirts collapsed.
So here we have a world where almost all the cars are oil-fuelled or at best "hybrid," although electric-powered alternatives are beginning to appear on the market. The electrics are still not satisfactory for long-distance driving, but mass-produced cars burning carbon-neutral oil substitutes in internal combustion engines are probably only five to 10 years away. And in 10 or 15 years' time, might the motorized masses ask themselves: why are we all driving petrol-fuelled cars?
I’m seriously considering getting aproject car frame and putting an external combustion steam engine in it, like a stanley steamer but modernized to make ignition more effecient. No gears, minimum fuel use, decent speed, and quiet.
...mass-produced cars...
And what will power the production equipment for all of this production ???
Drill Baby Drill.
“Concerns about global warming are pushing them in the same direction (to alternative, non-fossil sources of energy). The key to stopping the warming is to cut the amount of fossil fuels we are burning, and ultimately to stop using them entirely.”
Genius, sheer genius. If only the Neanderthals could have understood this and stopped their rampant fossil-fuel burning that warmed Earth out of the last Ice Age.
The planet would have stayed naturally frozen and glaciated and the Neanderthals might still survive.
Algae. Algal blooms are the result of the villainous phosphates in waste water. They should set up their algae farms next to waste water treatment plants, let us have decent dishwashing detergents and put the phosphates to good use.
The author is engaging in wishful thinking. It is difficult to predict 20 to 30 years in the future. Perhaps a viable substitute for petroleum will emerge. However, the policies pursued by governments now do not give me much confidence. Governments are interfering with development of economically viable substitutes by mandating immature technologies that become boondoggles (corn-based ethanol, biofuels, electric vehicles). The only viable technology that I see now is turbo diesel perhaps using a hybrid engine. The turbo diesel can provide much higher mileage than gasoline vehicles and match the hybrid vehicles at a much lower cost. Government interference has prevented the widespread adoption of these vehicles in the US although not in Europe.
Auto companies will lose large amounts on electric vehicles unless governments subsidize and mandate their usage. The first generation of these vehicles has enormous problems.
GWYNNE DYER...
...just another utopian believing in rainbow colored unicorns that crap skittles.
Like everyone on the far left, Dyer has never been right about anything he's ever said, any position he's ever taken. Unlike a normal person, who would be embarrassed to be in the wrong so consistantly, and would, consequently, be more circumspect about running off at the mouth, Dyer seems to believe that being he's wrong about everything because he's an out-of-the-box thinker, and, consequently, wears his wrongheadedness as a badge of honor.
He's someone to be ignored with extreme prejudice.
So, let's start again, shall we, mutha Erf' gave us all the oil we'll ever need for 10 forevers because she loves us & the ducks (why, I don't know).
It took us a long time to find it, but now we know how to use it and will forever more, thank you again, mutha Erf', your the best.
And that oil, it's the best too, you can do anything with it.
GWYNNE DYER
Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent Canadian journalist, syndicated columnist and military historian.
Cyclone Power of Florida, as one application, has developed an automotive drive train based on a modern steam technology. http://www.cyclonepower.com/lsr_gallery.html
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