“Food shortages in much of the third world - very likely - and very nasty. Most of those are now caused by political situations where a nasty dictator or political party is using starvation as a weapon against people they dislike.
That is what we need to guard against here in the U.S.”
Agreed. There is almost always food available somewhere, it’s just at what price. Growing one’s own food helps as a buffer against commercial shortages which is part of why I garden. My dad forced me, against my will as a kid, to stick it out gardening in the Las Vegas Desert, teaching me how to grow a garden and enjoy the fruits of ones labor in even one of the harshest environments. I’ve recently learned of permaculture and despite it’s environmentalism nutjobs, I think it’s a great breakthrough in small scale farming.
What we need to worry about in the U.S. not just the catastrophes, but the parties which would enslave us through the use of (or lack of) food.
You are a hedge fund trader and the Federal Reserve just gave you acces to a heap of money at really cheap prices in what appears to be a highly inflationary envorinment. Your choice is:
a. Safe bet. Buy treasury notes at a .0015%/year discount to return (including your borrowing costs).
b. Buy a broad basket of commodities leveraged at current margin rates on futures with a 95% guaranteed portfolio correlation on a broad basket to expected inflation rates based upon quantitative easing projections.
I.e. are you going to gamble for no significant gain or an almost certain payoff of a large gain, with no moral hazard since if you lose, the Fed will have to bail you and all of wall street out yet again again again to avoid "system risk."