[spetznaz]

Definitely costs would go up, and go up significantly for any of the twins as opposed to a single like the Gripen or Viper. However, as a number of people following the issue have said, there is going to be a whole lot of political pressure. I believe the Indians have managed to largely placate the Russians, but when it comes to the US the pressure is huge (notwithstanding the recent large purchases of American hardware), and when it comes to the Europe (the Brits/Germs/Spaniards, and particularly the French) it is not just pressure but straight unabated desperation. For instance, Dassault misses out on this and it might probably be bye-bye for Dassault manned military aviation. Maybe.

Hence, the Indians have a lot of good aircraft with critical military functionality (e.g. with a lot of India's fighters due to retirein the mid future, plus the need to maintain squadron strength) and technological growth/increase, that also come with tremendous political considerations. Thus, I wonder whether I would use that opportunity (the financial ability of India to increase the order size) to simply go ahead and add the F-16 and/or Gripen (the Viper's chances must be really low for obvious reasons, and as for the Gripen I wonder how disimilar it would be from an evolved LCA Mk2 ...obviously the Tejas may not be as good, but it is in the same niche). I do not think they would pick the Viper over the SuperHornet (for a number of reasons ranging from greater growth potential and ongoing investment, the fact it will be in use with the USN/Aussies for quite some time, all the way to more visceral reasons like Pakistani Vipers), thus for the American option it will definitely be the SuperHornet. For the other choice all one is left with is the Eurofighter and the Rafale, and either of them is expensive. I just do not see a choice of a SuperHornet with a F-16, Superhornet with Gripen (which by the way would make the most sense from a cost perspective considering the engines, as well as from an immediate capability perspective, and even from a political point of view - with the aegis of the US for the SuperBug, and independence with the Gripen), or Tiffy (or Rafale) with F-16 or Tiffy (or Rafale) with F-16. Thus, unless they go for a SuperHornet/Gripen combo, it will be two twins with one being American and the other European.

[sukhoi-30mki]

There’s one form of pressure that the media isn’t paying attention to and that involves domestic political calculations.

If one of the non-American contenders launched a protest with the Comptroller and Auditor General in the event of a US aircraft being chosen (something the IAF is wary about in general), then all hell will break loose. The current Indian government is beset with allegations of malpractices as it is and the last thing it needs is a a scandal alleging a sell out to Uncle Sam since issues of technology transfer and monitoring remain unresolved. Of course that’s all hypothetical at the moment but the point is American political pressure can and will be offset by domestic compulsions to a degree.