Not. A. Chance.
Well, it does appear there is a chasm between socons and (l)ibertarians in the party...it's also a geographical gap statistically.
A "southern conservative" is around 80% likely to also be a social conservative.
A "western/mountain-conservative" is far more likely to be (l)ibertarian and open to gays in the party.
Palin is far more the later.