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Palin might lose to Obama in 2012 but there will be no parallel to 1964. LBJ ran as a proud leftist in an era before leftism had discredited itself. Goldwater ran as a proud conservative at conservatism’s lowest political ebb. Obama will have to run as a covert leftist long after having blown his cover in an era when every sentient creature knows that the left is hideously destructive. He might win, but there's no way he would carry Tennessee, and I very much doubt he could win, barring a dramatic economic turnaround.

Jimmy Carter looked like a lead pipe cinch against Reagan in 1979. He crushed Reagan in all sorts of national polls, except the one that counted. Asking people what they think about an election nearly 2 years hence in almost meaningless. Far from suggesting that a Palin candidacy is in trouble, this poll indicates the reverse — that polling data can't be trusted as an indicator of her prospects.

All this hyperventilating about Sarah Palin is pointless and unseemly. Either she is what the caricaturists say she is, in which case she'll fall flat on her face, or she isn't, in which case she will have as good a chance of beating Obama as anyone Republicans could nominate. What will be, will be and today's polls won't affect it at all. Ignore the polls and let events unfold.

The '80 election parallel is also invalid unless Obama gets his own hostage crises. He might have weathered the economic downturn (stagflation) with the help of the media, but the hostage crises and the final debate performance by Reagan turned the late polls against Carter very strongly. There was the one overnight tracking poll done on election eve that showed Reagan's lead blowing open again. It was clearly related to the hostages.

Obama isn't very smart on his own, but I think he will likely avoid the mistakes Carter made. No doubt the media will savage any candidate put up in opposition to their Messiah, but the knives are out for Palin in double portion.