Posted on 02/06/2011 9:37:34 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
John J. Miller has a cover story in the new issue of National Review that’s a compelling portrait of the accomplishments of Jeb Bush. Four years after leaving the Florida governor’s mansion, he remains one of the most impressive Republican politicians in the country, a formidable policy mind with the political chops to drive conservative reforms even out of office. So why isn’t he running for president? Bush told Miller what he’s said to others, too — he won’t run in 2012, but he’ll consider 2016. This is a mistake. Bush should run now for at least eight reasons:
1) It’s a wide-open field for a nomination that’s worth having. Rarely do you get such a convergence of a beatable incumbent president with a wide-open field to challenge him. Obama is slightly below 50 percent in the polls, with a real weakness in the middle of the country, and he’s saddled with a recovery that has yet to produce substantial job growth. Yet there is no true frontrunner in the race to challenge him. It’s hard to imagine an environment better suited for a heavyweight like Jeb to make a run.
2) 2016 is too late I. By 2016, Jeb will have been out of office ten years. No doubt he will have made many contributions to the cause in the interim, but by then his main credential — his governorship and its accomplishments — will seem like yesterday’s news. Right now he has the feel of an elder statesman of the party while his time in office is still fresh.
3) 2016 is too late II. By 2016, a bumper crop of Republican talent will be poised to storm the national stage. Marco Rubio not only will be the hot new thing out of Florida, he’ll be seasoned. Chris Christie will be ready. A host of senators and governors — freshly minted in the 2010 elections, so it’s too soon for them to run now — will be ready to go. Jeb will not be such a predominant figure in such a robust field. The crop of prospective GOP candidates this time reflects the downdraft in Republican fortunes in 2006 and 2008. Jeb would loom all the larger for it.
4) The Bush rehabilitation has begun. George W. Bush is not exactly popular, but two years of Obama have taken the edge off W.-hatred, and he’s risen from the depths of his unpopularity near the end of his presidency. Gallup had a poll in December that had Bush’s approval rating very slightly above President Obama’s. Bush’s book, Decision Points, and the accompanying media tour were successes. In 2008, Jeb’s association with his brother would have been an absolute killer. That’s not true anymore. The controversies that made the Bush years so venomous have faded, and — partly through the miracle of the accelerated news cycle — 2000–2008 already feels somewhat distant.
5) Jeb will still be a Bush in 2016. There’s no doubt that it will always be awkward for Jeb to be the third Bush; it will always have a dynastic feel about it. But that will remain as true in 2016. If Jeb runs in four years, after Obama presumably wins a second term in 2012, he will still be vying to be the third Republican president in a row who’s a Bush. Waiting until 2016 won’t make that fact any less odd.
6) He’s not just another Bush. Jeb is different from his patrician dad and different from his thoroughly Texan brother. As soon as people see him on the national stage, they’ll realize he’s his own person and has to be taken on his own terms.
7) Jeb can unite the party. Jeb probably has a better chance to unite the establishment and Tea Party wings of the GOP than anyone else, certainly a better chance than Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney would seem to have at this juncture. The establishment would presumably flock to Jeb, while he’d have a record of solid conservative accomplishment to sell to the conservative base. Some tea partiers will have zero interest in another Bush, and Jeb will take his lumps on immigration (at NR, we’ll look forward to administering some of them, and trying to change his mind). It’s a very volatile environment, and were he to run, much would obviously depend on how he actually campaigned. But he would stand a good chance of avoiding a damaging division in the party.
8) Waiting is almost always a mistake. It’s an axiom of presidential politics that you have to run when you have the opening, even if it seems “too soon.” This is why Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were elected president and Mario Cuomo never was. Jeb’s opening is now — “too soon” after his brother’s presidency, “too soon” into his life as an ex-governor — and it will probably never quite be there again.
In short, if Jeb feels a call to run for president, it has to be 2012, not 2016.
Alas, Judge Greer is probably the most popular politician in FL save Bill Nelson.
NO NEWTS
NO Cheneys
NO THE LIST IS ENDLESS
WFB is spinning so loud you can hear the hum for miles.
Barf Bag 2012
She was being murdered. No guardian and no judge has the right to murder. The specific ways in which both of them, and many others, violated the law are beyond counting.
Jeb should have had a hospital bed set up in the Governor’s Mansion, then gone to the nursing home in person with a contingent of cops and the National Guard, and taken her to the Governor’s Mansion for her protection.
What Jeb did was the exact equivalent of refusing to send any assistance to people in a flood or a burning building.
Yuppers, it's just like someone said, talking on Talk Radio this afternoon .... people can agree with you all day long on principle, but political reality may dictate that "they can't be seen in the photograph with you" .... the MSM defined Terry's defenders as droolers and mouthbreathers, and that was it. Curtains for Terry, because when the issue became high-profile it became important for the Death Culture(TM) to defeat her defenders publicly and put her to death, in order to (in the immortal phraseology the Old Grey Whore used about some other issue) "establish a principle".
The RiNO's always start looking for the exits when the MSM 'Rats give them the Evil Eye.
The National Review was founded to promote conservatism in the face of bipartisan liberalism under the Eisenhower administration. Other than being pro-life, John Ellis Bush is a Rockefeller Republican. NR is no longer worth the paper it was written on.
Lowry now contributes at Huffington:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/t/wownumber-of-ppl-in-luntz_34814156234297344.html
Lowry is laboring under the delusion that the important question is:
“Why should Jeb run in ‘12 rather than ‘16?”
When, in fact, the only real question (which he fails to answer, OF COURSE) is:
“Why should Jeb run at all?”
Actually, the big question is:
“Is Rich Lowry stupid or is he working for the democrats?”
Rich, do you know how EASY it would be for obambi to campaign against a BUSH???
The campaign copy practically writes itself.
I think they’re seeing that their white bread & mayonnaise sandwich candidates like Mitt and Tiny Tim aren’t getting any traction, so why not go back to something that’s already worked for them?That's exactly right.
The National Review endorsed Mitt Romney. Now they're headed towards a Jeb Bush endorsement.
How irrelevant can a "conservative" publication get?
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