“I’m scratching my head as to the relevance of this.”
Outside of Jutland, the naval campaign was basically irrelevant through the first world war.
“BS. Russia mobilizing was not at the time considered casus belli.”
Invading East Prussia isn’t Casus Belli? Germany did what America would have done in the same situation. Fight as hard as she could as long as she could.
“Germany had a choice, and they made it.”
True, they could have surrendered. I somehow doubt that facing that situation that America would have surrendered.
“Hooray for Germany!”
Yeah, hooray for Germany. Unfortunately for the Baltics and for everybody, not the case. Think the Baltics aren’t happy to be spared Russian domination?
“Larger, yes, but obviously not more powerful. Unless you mean something like “latently powerful.” As I’ve always said, hold latent power in one hand and poop in the other, see what gets filled first.”
Russia had a 2:1 manpower advantage. Adding France and Britain and their respective Empires makes it close to 8:1. That’s not even counting the Italians, who fought the Austrians to a standstill. Add America and that’s 10:1 manpower advantage for the allies.
Germany knew that war against everyone in 1914 was suicide, but they stood up against Russia and France and Britain for 4 years. Nobody, not even the most optimistic expected them to hold out that long. Everyone expected that the war would be over by Christmas, especially in Britain and France, for the same reasons that I’m laying out here.
The only advantage that Germany had was choosing the battlefield, and fighting on the defensive. And it was nearly enough. Strategically, the war is hopeless. Past the first battle of the Marne, the Allies held the initiative, which they never relinquished. You can’t win playing defense.
“I’d like to have seen Metternich keep the peace with Napoleon in the picture.”
Metternich’s system was designed to keep France from doing what she had just done, and conquer all of Europe.
This is why 1870 was such a surprise. Prussia alone took on France and won. They had the plan, and the intiative, France did not. WW1, the Germans played defense, and unsurprisingly lost.
WW2, Hitler managed to invade and defeat everyone, just like Napoleon, and lost in Russia, just like Napoleon. In the end, unlike Napoleon, the state was occupied, and divided. Unlike Napoleon, German allies were occupied. If Germany had treated France the way France treated Germany, France would have been partitioned, and the low countries would be German. Unlike in the Second world war, where all of Eastern Europe became Russian, and they simply traded one dictator for another.
The worst part about both wars? Democracy came out the worst. It wasn’t until the last decade of the 20th century that countries which existed in the first decade had been restored.
So what were all those wars for?
“Outside of Jutland, the naval campaign was basically irrelevant through the first world war”
I bring up Germany’s naval build-up not as it relates to their fighting capacity in the war, but as it relates to the diplomatic climate of the prewar years. The strategic value of Germany’s navy is irrelevant to the issue of who started the war and why. It is very relevant to the pre-war psychology of Britain, France, Russia and Germany’s “arms race.”
“True, they could have surrendered.”
Surrender? How? No one was fighting them!
“Russia had a 2:1 manpower advantage”
Yeah, and I can give an AK47 to a chimpanzee, but that doesn’t mean he can win a duel against me and a slingshot (that is, if I knew how to use a slingshot). The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and if Germany was so successful against Russia it is because Russia isn’t as powerful as it seemed. Manpower isn’t everything.
“Germany knew that war against everyone in 1914 was suicide”
No, they didn’t. They thought they’d win; that’s why they started it. Contrary to popular revisionist history, nations do not start wars because they are afraid. It’s the opposite, actually. Which is why the best way to avoid war is to scare people.
“Metternich’s system was designed to keep France from doing what she had just done, and conquer all of Europe.”
And it wouldn’t have worked if France had continued to be what it recently was.
“This is why 1870 was such a surprise. Prussia alone took on France and won. They had the plan, and the intiative, France did not.”
Exactly. They didn’t count on an aggressive Germany. Just like, later, they didn’t accurately gauge Hitler. Just like Kissenger mistakenly believed the Soviet Union and the U.S. were morally and strategically equivalent.
“So what were all those wars for?”
Ask Germany and Germany.