Posted on 02/01/2011 4:07:22 PM PST by SJackson
Democracy will give Egyptian people a voice, and their voice may demand that peace accord be broken.
Egypt’s democracy protests across the board spell bad news for Israel, which is more democratic than most countries in the Middle East, but not democratic enough.
Tens of thousands of protestors have filled the streets in Egypt’s major cities demanding the resignation of its presidentfor- life Hosni Mubarak and the backlash has impacted the monarchy in Jordan and the dictatorship in Syria.
Mubarak is not the worst Arab tyrant in the Middle East, but he is viewed as a puppet of the United States which currently finds itself in a curious position. Does the US back democracy in Egypt as it has in other countries or does it try to help Egypt make a transition from a dictatorship to a more open dictatorship?
Why are Americans even balking at calling for an end to the dictatorial rule in Egypt? Because Egypt is the cornerstone of American and Israeli foreign policy in the Middle East.
Without Egypt supporting the status quo, Israel especially has much to lose.
The average Egyptian does not support the peace accord that signed by Mubarak’s predecessor, Anwar Sadat on Sept.17, 1978. Sadat tried to argue that peace between Egypt and Israel would usher in peace with the Palestinians, Jordanians, Syrians and Lebanese. Save for Jordan, that peace is still elusive.
After Sadat’s assassination, Mubarak, one of his generals became president. Not known for his diplomatic talents, he became the caretaker of the unpopular peace with Israel.
Though he is a dictator, Egyptians have enjoyed more freedoms than most citizens in other Arab countries.
Israel’s main benefit from its peace accord with Egypt was not only the hope of establishing normal relations, but also clearing away the threat of wars, lead by Egypt until then.
Once it signed an agreement with Israel, the threat of a regional war vanished, replaced by proxy wars like those fought against the vanguards of radical Islam, Hamas and Hizbullah, agents of Iran, also a nation of tyrants and dictators.
On the surface, Egypt’s turn to democracy sounds good, although it has put America and Israel in awkward positions: sure they want democracy, but not if that democracy undermines the peace accords with Israel.
Peace with Israel under its present terms can only be enforced by a dictator like Mubarak. Democracy will give the people a voice and their voice clearly demands that the peace accord be broken.
If Egypt falls, that chorus of anti-Israel sentiment will grow across the Arab world, possibly even sparking new regional wars. Already, protestors in Jordan have taken to the streets and Syrian dictator Bashir al- Assad is moving fast to prevent similar protests in his country.
Israel may then find itself regionally back in time to the 1960s, isolated by the Arab world and constantly fearing more wars.
THE ARAB world may be under the foot of dictators, friend and foe to the West and Israel, but the Arab people are smart enough to see through the years of false promises and bad deals on Israel’s part.
If democracy revails in Egypt and the people take control, Israel will face a pivotal moment: to either continue its current course of rejecting peace or taking negotiations with the Palestinians more seriously as a first step towards becoming a real member of the Middle East community.
Democracy is good, but it carries with it a real price that will disrupt the conveniences of the status quo.
The biggest losers will be the dictators, Western foreign policy and, likely, Israel.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
I acknowledge I sometimes make fun of Ray, his opinion pieces often aren't that deep. But it's interesting that Ray takes it for granted that a free Arab would embrace Jew hatred, and that democratic elections would clearly result in a government in Egypt that would turn it's back on the treaty with Israel (lying Arabs, I'm shocked). He may be on target here, perhaps hatred is ingrained in many Arabs. Just a month ago they were bombing a ----- (don't insert Church here) murdering and maiming --------- (don't insert Christians here, Ray being a Christian don't want to point out the persecutions of his co-religionists) by the score. It's an Israel thing, after all. Those Copts, probably secret Zionists at heart.
It is a pity that Israel is burdened with so many of these creeps.
Does he really think appeasing this phony people -- the so-called Palestinians -- will help Israel's survival? Appeasing the Arabs does not work. Doesn't the writer of this article know what type of mentality he is dealing with? Or is he a semi Communist who arrogantly thinks man or men have no nature and his pie in the sky theories about people are true because the thought enters his mind?
I think it is the latter.
Great read. Very straightforward. And scary.
Israel rejecting peace? Dealing in bad faith?
Is this guy from another planet?
On the right hand side of your keyboard there is a button labeled “enter” or “return” (if its really old.)
At the conclusion of each complete set of sentences that encompass a single thought, hit it.
I cannot read the stream of words you posted.
I agree that Americans made a terrible mistake in 2008. Despite Obama’s Muslim background and his “Muslim Outreach,” he is causing America and the whole world to be less safe. I fear for Israel and her people at this time. Only God can save them from what lies ahead, I’m afraid, since I don’t think America will be much help as long as President Obama is in office.
By the way, how dare he try to push Mubarak out “now”? I think he WANTS Muslim Brotherhood to come to power.
There is dismay all around the world as events unfold. The Middle-East is on fire – literally and politically. Forces are stirring up a desire for “change,” “revolution,” or “democracy,” and governments are being toppled, one by one. It did not just start with Tunisia. It started with Iran in 1979, when a national referendum to become an Islamic Republic passed, and the Ayatollah Khomeini became the Supreme Leader of the country.
Prior to this, Iran was quite western in life-style and was ruled by a pro-western leader, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran. All of this changed with the fall of the Shah and adoption of a theocratic constitution. Now, there are few freedoms in Iran, a terrorist state that daily seeks nuclear weapons and the destruction of Israel and the US. Since that time, the fires of Islam have continued to be stirred and are burning hotter and hotter all over the world.
Turkey’s Islamic revolution began on November 3, 2002, when Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Reconciliation Party (AKP) swept to power in Turkey’s elections. Since that time, Turkey has become less western and is aligning itself more with Iran and Syria and is becoming less friendly to Israel and the US.
It seems that all the crooked dictators that America has propped up are now falling, and in their wake are powerful forces and influential leaders ready to step in and take power. Protests in Tunisia in mid-December led to the end of the 23-year long presidency of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali when he officially resigned, after fleeing to Saudi Arabia with 1.5 tons of his country’s gold. Mohamed Ghannouchi from the Socialist Destourian Party stepped in as Prime Minister.
In the last couple of weeks, the national unity government of Lebanon collapsed in the worst political crisis since the 2008 fighting, and it gives the terrorist organization Hezbollah a tremendous victory.
In one fell swoop, Iran has been able to thwart American hopes in Lebanon which hinged on the tribunal indictment of Hezbollah in order to strengthen the pro-west Hariri government. Instead, there is now an Iranian puppet leader ruling in Lebanon --Najib Azmi Mikati. Although supporters of ousted Prime Minister Saad Hariri demonstrated in the streets, burning tires, firing shots in the air, blocking major highways, and declaring a day of anger to protest Hezbollah’s Iranian-backed “coup,” it was too late. The damage was done.
The protests in Tunisia inspired similar actions throughout the Arab world, particularly in Egypt and Yemen. President Barack Obama may have encouraged the protesting of Tunisians, since he applauded the courage and dignity of their protests. While he urged people to keep calm and avoid violence, he also called on the Tunisian government to respect human rights and hold free and fair elections.
During the 2011 State of the Union Address he said, “We saw that same desire to be free in Tunisia, where the will of the people proved more powerful than the writ of a dictator. And tonight, let us be clear: the United States of America stands with the people of Tunisia, and supports the democratic aspirations of all people.” While “democratic” may sound good, it can also mean “mob rule,” and overthrowing one dictator may lead to the oppressive rule of others.
Jeffrey Feltman, the US State Department’s leading envoy for the Middle East said the US was hoping that the "example" of Tunisia would bring reform to the rest of the region. Perhaps young Egyptians were listening, because Egypt is on fire, and it did not take long for the American administration to abandon its 30 year friendship with President Mubarak and side with those who seek his ouster. Now, the influence of the Tunisian uprising is spreading to Albania, Morocco, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Jordan.
Today (Tuesday) King Abdullah of Jordan fired his Prime Minister and his entire government was dismissed. There is concern that it will have a cascading effect on the Middle East. If Egypt and Jordan both fall into the hands of radical groups, Israel will be completely surrounded by enemy states.
Israel’s Netanyahu government is experiencing deep anxiety over President Obama’s response to its ally Mubarak, and he has urged the US to try to keep President Mubarak in power. Things are currently peaceful in Israel, but the Muslim Brotherhood is now seeking the ouster of President Mubarak in Egypt and King Abdullah in Jordan. What is next?
Statistics from 2010 show that 60% of the Muslim-majority countries are comprised of people under age 30. As Islamic states become increasing radicalized, and as young Muslims protest for governmental changes, we will see more fundamentalist Islamic groups step forward to take power, initially offering more freedom and “democracy,” but in the end leading to fewer freedoms, just as it happened in Iran.
The Muslim Brotherhood which seeks to overthrow the governments of Egypt and Jordan is the most influential political organization in the Islamic states and was founded in Egypt in 1928. The Brotherhood's stated goal is to instill the Qur'an and Sharia Law as the law of the state. Its maxim is significant: "Allah is our objective. The Prophet is our leader. The Qur'an is our law. Jihad is our way. Dying in the way of Allah is our highest hope." Osama bin Laden was influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood while studying at University in Saudi Arabia. The Muslim Brotherhood leader from Jordan is now warning that Arabs across the Middle East will seek to topple all leaders allied with the United States. Islamic states may seek “change,” and they may seek to oust pro-western, pro-American governments, but the young protesters seeking “democracy” should beware, because they may get much more oppression and much less freedom than they bargained for.
Pray for Israel’s protection in this time when political events are sending shock waves around the world.
Mubarak is not a long term solution.
I agree that Mubarak is not a long term solution, but I don’t want him pushed out only to leave a vacuum for Muslim Brotherhood.
Feeding the Israel haters.
You can almost hear the Cheering in Los Angeles and New York.
The Jews won’t flee for their lives this time. They don’t want a fight, but they are the best prepared in theater to decimate anyone that threatens them.
If the radical muzzies take control of Egypt, the highly trained military assets won’t follow. The pilots, tank commanders, field generals, etc will melt away.
Look at Iran today, they can’t get 10% of their old technology airforce in the air at one time.
Egypt will lose an entire generation of their men for nothing if they try to take on Israel.
Agree for sure. If the Muslim Brotherhood should gain control of Egypt (and it will)it will eventually take control of it's military too. And, if Jordan should be taken over by Muslim extremists (and it will be)then this puts Israel in a real pickle with around 200M Muslims in close proximity of it's borders. Being that there are only about 5M Israelis, there is only one scenario to play out when Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iran by extension decides to over-run Israel. Israel will have no choice but to resort to it's nuclear capability very quickly. Now, this puts Pakistan in a pickle, being that it's the only Muslim country at this time with nuclear weapons and a delivery system capable of striking Israel. I believe Pakistan will light’em up and launch a strike against Israel in retaliation. Then, what happens next? What does the U.S. do? What does Russia do? What does India do? I foresee a lot of radio activity in the atmosphere for a long, long time...
If Egypt starts a war do you think they will stand alone against Israel? I don’t. The other increasingly radical Middle East countries are just waiting for someone to start a war with Israel. JMHO.
Smart?? Puhleeez.
GTFO.
Laugh/Cry/Puke
You are right, it will be a multi front war.
I was around the last few times this happened. Egypt was bloodied bad. Israel will pull no punches, and as I mentioned, they have the only professional fighting force in the area.
Who will fly the Egyptian F-16s, and drive the Abrhams Tanks? It will be a fight to the death, but will end up being a turkey shoot for Israel.
Jihades are low tech terrorists, they do well against women and children, not so well against state of the art military weapons systems.
The author is an arab-American pali.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.