I think you're confused, or else don't understand how the primary system works.
Holy moly, home from work and didnt think this would still be going on.
The GOP may have lost its way in 2008/10, but thanks to the new apportionment of Electoral Votes on the 2012 map, they should be much less hostile to a strong conservative candidate, primarily for the reason that there is substantial proof from the 2010 results that a strong conservative candidate has the best chance of winning, be that Palin, Thune, Demint, Cain, Jindal, etc.
*IF the presumptive GOP nominee is truly conservative, they essentially have all the McCain states locked up for 170 EV’s. Thanks to Tea Party efforts, NC and IN should easily
be locked up like normal. And if McCain (our weakest candidate in years) managed to hold MO despite the corruption and voter fraud that went on, the GOP should win by at least 3-4 points here. You can also toss VA back over to the Red side now that Jim Webb has been exposed for not being a moderate Democrat and the fact George Allen decided to run for his old seat. This gets the generic GOP candidate to 219 Electoral Votes without much of a fight from the Democrats.
The fun starts in FL and OH (like normal). In FL, a GOP conservative has the advantage and the National GOP knows it thanks to the Crist Senate disaster. If you look at Obama’s vote totals from FL 2008, its not that he won larger margins in already blue areas, its that he overperformed in the conservative areas along the I-4 corridor and Duval county. That will not happen this time because the Independent’s realize Obama is a lot more leftist than they thought. At best, the Dems will try to paint the Conservative GOP candidate as “extreme” and too “far right”. Given these two choices, I’d assume those Indy’s would stay home and not vote at all if they didn’t like our guy/gal. But that will not garner Obama any additional votes, which should be far less than last time due to lower enthusiasm. And with Rubio playing strong down in FL, the candidate is in good shape there, even Sarah Palin who, yes, could definitely win FL.
Despite our successes in PA and MI, I still expect them to go blue (for now). With FL out of play, the Dems will through money heavily into the midwest/southwest. Unfortunately, I think 2010 in NV showed us the state is rigged and will be hard for the GOP to win in 2012, unless the Governor steps into investigate it. The GOP should have the advantage in OH as well this time because, like FL, Obama cannot run as a “centralist” to Independents and get away with it. I think OH may be closer than FL at this time, but still red. That’s 266 Electoral Votes.
Of the remaining states (CO, NM, IA, WI, NH), I’m less certain. NH is probably blue. WI is a complete toss up after Feingold’s ouster. The Democrats having to spend money here will be frustrating to them, but they essentially have no choice because they certainly lose without it. IA is a complete toss-up, as is NM. CO is my choice for closest state though.
Sorry for the long post, but my point is that whereas the GOP’s argument against providing money to Christine O’Donnell in what looked like an unwinable situation in DE, doesn’t hold at the National level given the make-up of the Electoral map. The number-crunchers like Rove/Carville will be able to see this as well. This is probably the best year for nominating a true conservative since 1980.