You have your facts right, but I think that the interpretation is a bit off. If the Republican Party were to go the way of the Whigs, then a third Party would need to be formed and to nominate a candidate capable of winning before the Republicans nominate their candidate. If the third party is a spawn of the sore losers of a nomination fight, they lose.
the TEA party is in its infant stage. will it die out? will the GOP party co-opt it. Or will the GOp continue to fight it and give it strength in the conflict to dethrone it. There is nobody that knows that answer. will it die out like the Constitution party or will the TEA party form the new party like the GOP formed from the whigs.
The history is not yet written. And this poll says that the outcome is not clear. Without a TEA party backed candidate in the nomination fight the GOP will be very weak in 2012. the Gop party establishment pursues the destruction of gov Palin as a force at their own risk.